MARKET COMMENTARY FOR THE DAY 30 JUNE 2010

Bulls and bears are running helter skelter across global markets –at the time of writing this commentary the Dow is trading at 9876.88, up by 6.58/+0.07 per cent.. The Nikkei 225 was down by 188.03/ -1.06 per cent, Hang Seng was down by 119.91/-0.509 per cent, FTSE 100 was down by 2.65/-0.05 per cent and the DAX rose 13.49/0.23 per cent. Shanghai Composite Index dived 1.18 % [ 5.48 percent since last two days ] and the reason for the continuin slide is due to concerns that economists may reduce their growth forecasts for the nation because of policy tightening measures and the Europe debt crisis. “We’re beginning to see recession signals in China,” Jim Walker, Managing Director at Asianomics Ltd., said on Bloomberg Television from Singapore.

The Sensex closed at 17700.90, up by 166.81 points and the Nifty rested at 5312.50 up by 56.35 points. The top three gainers were BPCL, IDFC, and Idea which gained 4.33 per cent, 3.97 per cent and 3.58 per cent respectively. The top three losers e Wipro, GAIL and Bhararti Airtel which shed 1.32 per cent, 1.19 per cent and 1.13 per cent respectively. The market breadth as reflected by Nifty advances and declines was pretty positive and stood at 43 : 7.

Metals declined for the first time in four sessions on the London Metal Exchange, led by a 4.8 percent drop in zinc and 5.3 percent plunge in lead. Copper fell 3.8 percent, extending its decline this year to 10 percent. Gold slipped 0.2 percent to $1,236.78 an ounce, trimming this year’s gain to less than 13 percent. Oil for August delivery slumped 3.2 percent to $75.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In corporate news, Aegis Logistics to consider bonus issue Board meeting on 07 July 2010 The board meeting of Aegis Logistics will be held on 07 July 2010 to consider the proposal for issue of bonus shares.

Bajaj Holdings & Investment to announce Q1 results Board meeting on 22 July 2010 The board meeting of Bajaj Holdings & Investment will be held on 22 July 2010 to consider the unaudited financial results for the first quarter ended 30 June 2010 (Q1).

Some good news to cheer up Dalal Street tomorrow. India’s export grew 36.2% while imports increased 43% in Q4FY10 compared to the corresponding quarter last fiscal, reports CNBC-TV18.

Kishor S. Khot, [Kishor@hbjcapital.com], Equity Strategist, HBJ Capital Services Pvt Ltd

MARKET COMMENTARY FOR THE DAY 29 JUNE 2010

The bears are rocking across all the bourses crushing the hopes and aspirations of bullish investors and as I am writing this, the Dow is trading at 9891.54, down by 246.98 points. The net loss sustained by the Dow since last five days from 23 June 2010 till date is to the tune of 380.40 points and if this trend continues, I shall not be surprised if the Dow slides to 9000 within a fortnight. The Nikkei 225 was down by 123.27/-1.27 per cent, Hang Seng was down by 477.78/-2.31 per cent, FTSE 100 was down by 157.46/-3.10 per cent and the DAX shed 205.19/-3.33 per cent.

Shanghai Composite Index dived 4.3 percent to a 14-month low of 2,427.05 as investors fretted that Agricultural Bank of China's record-breaking initial public offering will draw money away from other stocks and depress prices overall.

The Sensex closed at 17534.09, down by 240.70 points and the Nifty rested at 5256.15, down by 77.35 points. The top three gainers were IDFC, L&T , and Bharti Airtel which gained 1.23 per cent, 0.22 per cent and 0.15 per cent respectively. The top three losers were Hindalco, RCom, and Tata Steel which shed 4.28 per cent, 4.14 per cent and 3.70 per cent respectively. The market breadth as reflected by Nifty advances and declines was pretty negative and stood at 4 : 46 [ compared to yesterday’s positive Nifty advance-decline of 44:6 ] If the bears continue to pop up and stay like uninvited guests for the next couple of days, then expect the Sensex to slide below the 17000 mark.

So, why on earth are the markets moving into red territory? Peter of Aalon Partners has a perfect answer for this : Worries that European banks won't be able to pay back the European Central Bank this Thursday as part of its €442 billion lending program are likely to drag the market even lower, said Peter Cardillo, Cchief Market Economist at Avalon Partners, New York. Markets are also jittery about the U.S. employment report due on coming Friday

In corporate news MMTC [ Face Value Rs.10 ] touched an intraday high of Rs 33,501 and an intraday low of Rs 32,502. At 14:41 hrs the share was quoting at Rs 32,799, up Rs 262.45, or 0.81%. The company has okayed 1:1 bonus and 10:1 stock split, reports CNBC-TV18

Triton Valves declared a Bonus Issue of 2:1.and the share goes ex-bonus on 5 July 2010.

Amongst sectors, Bankex shed 159.46 points while Oil and Gas was down by 146.18 while BSE Metals shed 411.57. .

So, if you are planning to enter the markets any time soon, just watch the game like the World Cup Referee without blowing the whistle and strike a goal [ read buy ] if the market crashes further.

Kishor S. Khot, [Kishor@hbjcapital.com], Equity Strategist, HBJ Capital Services Pvt Ltd

Our sell call on ITC Ltd achieved target in just 2 days, Profit = Rs31,500/-

The Bear’s Ride Positional Technical Call on ITC Ltd. given on June 27, 2010 completed the final target of Rs. 296-294 on June 29. Refer the link below for our first posting...

http://www.stoplosstrade.com/2010/06/lets-have-bear-ride-on-itc-ltd.html

The recommendation was to go short in the counter with the strict stop loss of 1% placed at the price of Rs314.5. The technical indicators were all indicating towards an impending correction in the scrip. The counter went for a major correction after it was posted. As indicated in our posting the scrip went for a downslide to the final price target of below 295 levels.

Hence, sell call given at 309 and target achieved at 295, total gain of 14pts.

Profit = Rs 14 * (2 x 1125) { We reco minimum 2 lots} = Rs31,500/-

-Akash Singh, Technical Analyst, SLT

MARKET COMMENTARY FOR THE DAY 28 JUNE 2010

The 2010 G-20 Toronto Summit was the 4 th meeting of the G-20 Heads of Government , primarily to discuss the global financial system and the world economy, which took place in Toronto, Canada during June 26–27, 2010.

The wealthiest of the Group of 20 countries said they would halve their government deficits by the year 2013 and "stabilize" their debt loads by 2016, a signal to international markets and domestic political audiences they are taking seriously the need to wean themselves from stimulus spending. In the concluding part, the U.S. warned that moving too fast to cut deficits and reduce stimulus spending could risk another global recession. [ wsjonline ]

Global equity markets were as follows : Dow was up 0.10 % Hang Seng +0.17%, FTSE +0.5 %, and DAX +1.43%, while Nikkei -0. 45% and Shanghai -0.69%.

The Sensex closed at 17774.26, up by 199.73 points and the Nifty rested at 5333.50, up by 64.45 points. The top three gainers were RCom, Reliance Infrastructure, and Idea which rose by 4.86 per cent,4.07 per cent and 3.80 per cent respectively. The top three losers were GAIL, ITC and ABB which shed 2.14 per cent, 1.26 per cent and 1.11 per cent respectively. The market breadth as reflected by Nifty advances and declines was pretty positive and stood at 44:6

Reliance Industries (RIL) has announced its seventh oil discovery in exploration block CS-ONN-2003/1 (CB 10 A&B) awarded under the NELP-V round of exploration bidding. The well CB10A-N1 was drilled to a total depth of 1579m in Part A of the block

In another corporate news, Reliance Communications has agreed to a $11 billion deal to sell its telecom tower assets to GTL Infrastructure.

SBI is planning to raise Rs. 5 billion through bonds sometime in the first week of next month and hence you can expect the scrip to move upwards in the days to come...

Agriculture Bank of China’s IPO is to be priced at 2.52 yuan – 2.68 yuan per share a piece that will allow it to raise as much as $20 billion plus.

Kishor S. Khot, [Kishor@hbjcapital.com], Equity Strategist, HBJ Capital Services Pvt Ltd

June 4th week performance: 95% successful calls ("What we promise is what we deliver")

- TEAM SLT

Let’s have a Bear Ride on ITC Ltd.

Currently the markets and the benchmark looks for an impending correction for a near term perspective. Approaching with a top down approach, ITC Ltd. could be a candidate for a large movement on a technical basis.

• The short term moving average (20-EMA) is above the medium term moving average (50-EMA) which suggests a presence of a medium term uptrend in the scrip. But on a three months graph every correction in the counter has taken support at the short term moving average which is currently at 291.

• The ADX indicator is at 51 levels suggesting a very trending nature present in the scrip. However a top up formation of the indicator could seriously inflict the current surge. The +DI is making sideways pattern indicating that no fresh buying at higher levels is occurring. The –DI is continuing its journey towards lower level. The scrip could correct if the –DI bottoms up which would point towards building of fresh short positions.

• The MACD trend indicator is showing a very significant development on the chart. This could be an indicator of a large swing in the prices of the counter in the coming sessions. The MACD line is currently topped out and is on the downward trajectory just above the Signal line. These two lines would generate a strong signal in case of a crossover or bounce back. The MACD histogram has just closed in the positive territory in the last session. The major move may come in case the indicator jumps in to the negative domain.

• The Slow Stochastic momentum indicator is in the overbought zone indicating a momentum on the buying side. However the %K line has crossed the %D line for a lower level on the chart. This could bring some correction in the scrip if both these lines come off their highs in the below 80 levels.

It would be advisable to go short with the trading price in the range of Rs. 309-312 with a strict stop loss of 1% at the price of Rs. 314.5 for a target price in the range of Rs. 293-296.

Akash Singh, Technical Analyst [Akash@hbjcapital.com], HBJ Capital Services Pvt Ltd.

MARKET COMMENTARY FOR THE DAY 25 JUNE 2010

As I write this, my heart aches to learn that a country has to sell a part of its land in order to repay debts. Greece is making it easier for the rich and famous to fulfill their dreams by preparing to sell, or offering long-term leases on, some of its 6,000 sunkissed islands in a desperate attempt to repay its mountainous debts.

The Sensex closed at 17574.53, down by 155.71 points and the Nifty rested at 5269.05, down by 51.55 points. The top three gainers were BPCL, ONGC and RCom which rose by 12.7 per cent, 6.23 per cent and 2.26 per cent respectively. The top three losers were Sterlite, ICICI Bank and Wipro which shed 3.42 per cent, 3.29 per cent and 3.22 per cent respectively.

At the time of writing this commentary, the Dow was trading at 10122.10, down by 30.68 points due to economic and credit market concerns and perhaps, may be the bulls just need some rest. The FTSE 100 in Britain, the CAC 40 in France and Germany's DAX all posted losses. Asian shares finished the session in negative territory. Japan's benchmark Nikkei index tumbled 1.92% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong dipped 0.21%. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.5%.

As is known, a trade with a minimum quantity of 500,000 shares or a minimum value of Rs 5 crore executed through a single transaction on the special window qualifies as a block deal and needs to be disclosed to SEBI on a daily basis irrespective of the fact whether deal relates to “client” or “own” account.

Some of the bulk deals transacted at the Indian bourses on June 24 were as under :

• ING Bank NV - Singapore Branch sold 10,675,028 shares at Rs 750.7 a share of Kotak Mahindra Bank.
• The Royal Bank Of Scotland N.V. bought 2,800,000 shares at Rs 70.75 a share of Nirlon.
• Credit Suisse First Boston (Singapore) sold 1,283,000 shares at Rs 46.54 a share of Mercator Lines.
• Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius bought 475,000 shares at Rs 65.39 a share of Eveready Industries.
• In corporate news, Edelweiss Capitals’ board has approved a stock split in the ratio of 5:1 and bonus in the ratio of 1:1.

Hindustan Construction Company (HCC) today announced that it has bagged an order worth Rs 4.31 billion from Himchal Pradesh Power Corporation of India. The order work includes execution of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract package for 100 MW (civil and hydro-mechanical works) Sainj Hydroelectric Project in Kullu District of Himachal Pradesh.The project is to be completed in 48 calendar months.

As I sign off , please join me in wishing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his team bon-voyage and hope the G-20 Summit at Toronto helps our country to strengthen political, economic and social ties with Canada.

Wishing you all a Happy weekend. Enjoy the weekend, enjoy the rains and hope the week ahead brings you lots of gains.

Kishor S. Khot, [Kishor@hbjcapital.com], Equity Strategist, HBJ Capital Services Pvt Ltd