Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Cipla raises Rs 675 cr via QIP [Impact : Limited downside for the share price of Cipla]

Our Call: Buy Cipla around 270-271, SL 265, TGT 280/290 in next 3-5 days. Due to merger & aquisition news in healthcare sector, this stock likely to gain.

Drug maker Cipla Ltd on Tuesday said it has raised Rs 675.99 crore by allotting over 2.56 crore equity shares to qualified institutional buyers on preferential basis.

The duly authorised Committee of Directors (CoD) allotted the equity shares at its meeting held on Tuesday, Cipla informed the Bombay Stock Exchange in a regulatory disclosure.

The committee allotted 2,56,30,000 fully paid-up equity shares of Rs 2 each at an issue price of Rs 263.75 including a premium of Rs 261.75 per piece, it said.

The equity shares were allotted to qualified institutional bidders under the terms of qualified institutional placement as per SEBI guidelines, it said.

The company is focused on developing new drug formulations for existing and active drug substances.

Shares of the company closed at Rs 279.85, up 4.73 per cent from previous close on the BSE.

Monday, September 28, 2009

Air India likely to suspend operations for 15 days due to stir by pilots. Impact: Our buy call on Kingfisher at 56, SL 48, TGT 70/75 will do good.

On friday we gave a call : Buy Kingfisher Airlines (KFA) around 56-58, SL 48, TGT 70/75 in next 1 week holdings. KFA to raise $175mn thru GDR at higher price, OI rising in its Oct future.

New Update:-
Air India likely to suspend operations from midnight
Air India is likely to suspend operations for about two weeks from midnight tonight in the wake of the continuing stir by executive pilots, sources said today. At least 40 flights were cancelled across the country as some pilots, majority of them Delhi-based, continued to report "sick" to protest cut in Productivity-Linked Incentive (PLI). The pilots remained adamant on their demand that their three months of flying allowance and PLI, which are "due", should be paid in full before they resume their duties.


Impact: Other airlines will do good business due to this hence stocks of Jet Airways & KFA are likely to move up on Tue.

We all are born trader if not read this & ask for “SLT's Trading Rules Book” FREE with 1 month paid subscription.

“Don't be Santusht… Thoda aur wish karo, Trading Karo”
-
Who says you are not a trader? If you are saying that you are a pure (1st of all nothing in this world is called “Pure”) investor/trader then you are misleading yourself. Don’t you trade your skill, your talent or your knowledge for getting pay cheque from your company where you do Job.
-
You must not speculate blindly but one MUST trade whether it is trading in equity or commodity or intangible asset, trading is after all trading. Now, coming back to equity trading, who said money can’t be made in trading equity, let me give you my own example, way back in 2002-03 when I left one of the I-Bank in order to start a proprietary trading, I made 12-15 lakhs in just 2 years from base capital of just Rs 3 lakhs and it was the time when market was doing nothing, no movement at all, no one was interested in the market.
-
I do agree that such returns are not sustainable but one must not forget that even RJ use to trade in his early days and after he made killing in ACC stock way back in 1992 times, he invested all his profits into long term bets. Most of the people who don’t come with huge capital take this route to earn and invest.
-
So, don’t say that I don’t want to trade; if that is the case then you are missing one of the smart ways to make money. It is something like saying, hey, I don’t eat non-veg; I am a vegetarian. This person might not know what he is missing on. So, if you are “Santusht” (Satisfied with what you are doing) then you will remain what you are now.
-
If you want to see a change in your life pattern, 1st be the change, don’t just invest, you must do trading. Investing is a passive game doesn’t required much effort and zero adrenaline secretion, trading gives you a life, makes you active, keeps you on the toe and at the same time earns you a lot. Here we are talking trading as per “SLT’s ways of trading with discipline”.
-
Dude, if you want to live a longer life without doing exercise, you MUST trade. And if you want to get the FREE "SLT’s trading rule book” you MUST subscribe for its 1 month paid subscription.
-
Good Luck!!!
JK, Technical Associate, HBJ Capital
[Life is beautiful, why don’t give it some action thru trading, why to wait for 3 years to make 10x why not just 1-2 years…….”Single Mantra: Make trend your friend!!!”]

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Kingfisher Airlines plans to raise up to $175 mn by Mar 2010

At current market price of Rs57, KFA is Rs1500Cr company. It is planning to raise Rs840Cr thru GDR, usually a company dilutes 30-40% of their equity to raise fund, if that is the case then one can see good upside of another 10-20% from here.

News Update:-
Private carrier Kingfisher Airlines plans to raise up to 175 million dollars (about Rs 840 crore) before March next year through rights issue and global depository receipts (GDR).

"Yes, we are planning both rights issue and GDR placement. The combined amount will be about 150-175 million dollars," UB Group Chief Financial Officer Ravi Nedugandi told PTI.

He, however, declined to comment on details saying pricing and exact size have not been finalised yet. "Timing will be before March 2010," he said when asked about the timeline for raising the fund.
Kingfisher is in need of funds and has a total debt of about Rs 6,000 crore.

"This includes about Rs 1,800 crore being given in advance to aircraft manufacturers against future delivery of planes," Nedugandi added. The carrier, which has a fleet of 71 aircraft had placed orders with Airbus, including five confirmed orders for A380s. It had also placed orders for five A340s, which were later converted for five A330 aircraft.

The airline is likely to get the first delivery of the world's largest aircraft Airbus A380 in 2014, which was scheduled for delivery in 2012. The airline has faced problems clearing its fuel bills. Petroleum Minister Murli Deora had informed Parliament in July that Kingfisher Airlines owes over Rs 950 crore to state-run oil companies in unpaid jet fuel bills.


Source: Web

Nomura rates Ranbaxy 'Reduce'; target Rs 261

Source: Web
Nomura has maintained ‘Reduce’ on Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd for a price target of Rs 261 from Rs 343.10 on Sep 14.

“Ranbaxy has outperformed the BSE HC Index by 50% since Feb 26, 2009 (post AIP invocation). We believe the outperformance is driven by the expectation of: a) resolution of USFDA issues and hence improvement in profitability; b) one-off product specific opportunities; and c) realisation of synergy benefits.

There have been some positive developments on these fronts but we believe the extent of the stock price movement is not warranted. The market has already built in improvement in base business RoE to 16% levels, higher than even historical levels, which we believe is overly optimistic. We maintain REDUCE,” the securities firm says in a note.

“We change our estimates to build in: a) revival in revenues (ex-US) given improved macro outlook, stable FX rates and inventory re-stocking; and b) Valacyclovir launch in Dec ’09. Estimated base business RoE is 2-3% over 2010-11. Our revised target price of Rs 261 is based on SOTP valuation: a) base business at Rs 141 - assuming steady state RoE of 12% by 2014; and b) one-offs at Rs 120,” Nomura said.

Birla Shloka Edutech Ltd (Code : 511607) : Buy @74 with SL@70 & TGT 100/120

  • CMP as on Sept 25th = 74.85 (CMP Now!!!)
  • EPS = 2.52 ; Mcap = 44Cr
  • During last 5 years:-
    Lowest Price = Rs 5.23 in Jan 2005 & Highest Price = Rs 86 on Sept 10th 2009 ;
    Lowest PE = 6.67 in Jan 2005 & Highest PE = 236 in Feb 2008; Current PE = 32-35

Trigger for this call: On Aug 31st 2009 Birla Shloka Edutech, the Yash Birla group company, has filed draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the market regulator Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI). It is planning to raise around Rs 34.78 crore via this follow-on public offer. One can download DRHP from the link below:- http://www.sebi.gov.in/dp/birlashloka.pdf

Let us have a look at the various follow-on issues in the past & future:-

  • In late 2006, Tanla Solutions also came with Follow on Public Offer raising Rs421Cr (not to forget that issue was 38 times oversubscribed). They offered 1.59 crore equity shares forming about 28.59 per cent of the fully diluted post issue paid-up capital of the company. Prior to the issue Mcap of Tanla was Rs 1000Cr. Post this issue Mcap of Tanla was Rs1400Cr. Usually when a company comes with follow-on public issues they offer 25-30% equity share post dilution to the public.
  • State-run UCO Bank, may float Rs 800-850 crore follow-on issue in the third quarter ending December 31, 2009. Presently, the government holding in UCO Bank is 64%. After the follow-on issue, the government's holding will fall to 51%. Here too you can see follow-on issue is just 13% of the equity base.
  • REC is going to issue 17 crore new shares in public offer. Equity base will rise 20% post share sale. Again, REC is coming with 20% dilution in equity thru follow-on offer.
    Earlier, the company had come out with an initial public offering (IPO) in February 2008 and raised more than Rs 1,600 crore.

What we want to convey is, that a follow-on public offer usually comes with 25-30% of the fully diluted post issue paid-up capital of the company.

Assuming the similar case in Birla Shloka Edutech Ltd.

  • Total equity share (FV = 10) at present = 59 lac
  • Birla Shloka to raise Rs 34.78 cr via follow-on offer, assuming 34.78Cr capital will be approx 30% of the Mcap post this issue. Hence, 100% of Mcap post the issue must be approx Rs 115Cr.
  • Current Mcap of this company is Rs44Cr, it has to increase to Rs80.5Cr by the time the follow on public issue hit the market. In order to justify Rs 80.5Cr valuation, share price of this company will be ruling around Rs 136 (Mcap = Rs80.5Cr with Equity Share = 59 lac).
  • Usually follow-on offer comes at the current ruling price hence, the company will issue approx 25 lac shares at Rs125-135 price band in order to raise Rs34.78Cr capital in follow on public offer.
  • Total equity share (FV = 10) post follow on issue = 59 lac + 25 lac = 84 lac shares with market price running around Rs125-135.

We have taken 2 assumptions:

  1. Company is going to issue not more than 30% of post diluted equity in follow-on offer. Based on the previous experience we have never seen a company issuing more than 30% in follow-on offer.
  2. Their follow-on offer will successfully get subscribed. Looking at the current market uptrend any education company can raise money, and this one is Yash Birla Company so we don't see any issue.

Now, if we are proved correct, then there is going to be at least upside move from Rs80 to Rs120 (to be on the conservative side) which is 50% returns in short/medium term (by the time issue hit the market). But one MUST keep the SL at 70 and enter at lower levels in case if profit booking happens.

Nikkei Comparison Suggests S&P 500 of 1400 by End of 2010 – and 400 by 2014

Merrill Lynch Asia (Bank of America) strategists Sadiq Currimbhoy, Arik Reiss, and Jacky Tang suggest that the S&P 500 could soar another 40% by December 2010 before it collapses completely based on a unique comparison with the Nikkei 225.

Uncanny Relationship Exists (with a Twist) between the Nikkei and the S&P 500.
The strategists have identified a pattern that supports the likelihood of major additional gains in the US stock market even without a strong economic recovery which suggests that the rally should continue until the end of 2010 (until Dec. 10th, 2010 to be precise). Below is an edited version of what the Merrill Lynch strategists had to say: Some investors like to compare the US to Japan. From a market perspective, plotting the Nikkei and the S&P 500 shows no similarity. However, a peculiar variation shows an uncanny relationship.

The Merrill strategists went further, constructing an equally-weighted index of all markets that have crashed more than 45% since 1970 plus the U.S. stock market crash in 1930 and then averaged the recoveries from these crashes (referred to as ‘Historical Peak-Trough Index’). They found that strong "relief rallies" are common and that, should this pattern hold for the S&P 500, then it should experience a further 40% appreciation by the end of 2010.

Specifically, they looked at all the markets since 1970 that had had crashes of more than 45% in the previous 12 months in U.S. dollar terms (or 50% in local currency terms) and added in the U.S. stock market crash of 1930 to create their equally-weighted index.

Relationship Suggests S&P 500 Will Rise to 1400-1500 before Falling Back to 400
When they the Historical Peak-Trough Index was compared to markets that have recently experienced similar deterioration (referred to as ‘Current Peak-Trough Index’) they concluded that the current S&P 500 index looks like it’s following a similar pattern and is set to peak in 15-16 months some 40% higher than the current level. That would have the S&P 500 topping out at somewhere around 1400-1500 (i.e. 5-10% less than the S&P 500’s record high of 1565 in October 2007) before crashing back to it’s 1994 low of 400 (when the stock market bubble first began) by the end of 2013 or early 2014.

-Source : Web

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Durge Puja & Dussehra Special Offer for "Make Money Trading Calls" (Valid from Sept 26th to Sept 28th)

Dassera day is considered a most auspicious day. It is a time-honored belief that if any new venture is started on this day, it is bound to be successful. Hence, all the undertakings be it laying-in of foundation of a new building, opening of a new commercial establishment or even initiating a child into the world of learning- are started on this day. Also on this day implements of agriculture, manufacturer's machines, the intellectuals pens, the household articles, the children's school books are placed before the idol of Durga and worshiped.

On this occassion, we have come up with special offers where in you can save up to 30% by opting "Make Money Trading Calls".
  • Nifty/Stock Future & Option + Cash Market Calls
    >>>Duration = 1 month
    >>>Subscription Charge = Rs 5,000 [Discount 20%, Pay just Rs4,000]
  • Nifty/Stock Future & Option + Cash Market Calls
    >>>Duration = 12 months
    >>>Subscription Charge = Rs 35,000 [Discount 30%, Pay just Rs24,500]

Feel free to call +91 98867 36791 (Sandeep Jain, available 24x7) or e-mail to Info@hbjcapital.com

- Team SLT

Friday, September 25, 2009

Intraday Calls given on Sept 25th [Gain: All Cash Calls Profitable & Loss = 10-12pts in Nifty Future]

  • Good Morning! Mkt opened weak, in-line with global mkt. Health Care & Consumer durable sector doing good today. www.stoplosstrade.com, +91 9886736791
  • Buy Birla Shloka Edutech around 73, SL 65, TGT 120 in month holding. Birla Shloka to raise Rs 34.78 cr via follow-on offer & likely price range will be 100-120.
  • Sell Nifty Fut around 4966-70, SL 4990, TGT 4935/4925. - www.stoplosstrade.com, +91 9886736791
  • Buy Ranbaxy 400 Call Option around 26-28, SL 20, TGT 35/40 in next 1 week holdings. - www.stoplosstrade.com, +91 9886736791
  • Dena Bank trading at a discount to book, can be a good pick around Rs64-65 levels for medium term. Keep SL 60, TGT 75/80 - www.stoplosstrade.com, +91 9886736791
  • Pls exit from Nifty Fut sell call given at 4970. Mkt showing strength, not likely to fall. Pls exit around 4980-82.
  • Pls continue to hold Birla Shloka cash mkt call, Ranbaxy 400 Call Option, Dena Bank cash mkt call. - www.stoplosstrade.com, +91 9886736791
  • Sensex/Nifty showing good strength, stay long, don't go short, but on dips. We are going to see another 100-200pts upside in Nifty in next 1-2 week.
  • Pls don't buy Nifty Call Option today, there is long weekend (monday is holiday) ahead.
  • Nifty Calls can be bought next week based on mkt condition : JK
  • Our long term penny stock reco for Sept has given 15% upside in a single day. It has potential return of 20x in 3 years. Visit www.hbjcapital.com for more info
  • Nifty under consolidation, it can breakout either side. Traders might take profit off the table before long weekend. Weakness seen below Nifty 4976 levels.
  • Buy Nifty Fut around 5000-5005, SL 4982, TGT 5025/5040 - www.stoplosstrade.com, +91 9886736791
  • European mkt open flat, showing mixed reaction. DOW Fut up 37pts, NASDAQ up 6pts. Indian mkt likely to show positive move after the long weekend.
  • Pls close your Nifty Fut short position, SL triggered.
  • Don't panic with the mkt fall, since mkt is closed on monday hence profit booking happening today. We will provide bottom fishing sure shot calls soon : JK
  • Buy Kingfisher Airlines (KFA) around 56-58, SL 48, TGT 70/75 in next 1 week holdings. KFA to raise $175mn thru GDR at higher price, OI rising in its Oct future.
  • Nifty will try to recover today's losses, those who are still holding long position in Nifty Fut should continue to hold till next week. We are +ve on the mkt.
  • Reliance Infratel & Quippo Telecom planning for IPO which will lead to rise in share price of GTL Infrastructure.- www.stoplosstrade.com, +91 9886736791
  • Buy GTL Infra Rs45 Call Option around Rs 1.30, SL 0.60, TGT 2.50/3 in next 2-3 days. www.stoplosstrade.com, +91 9886736791
  • Nifty Fut trading at 8pts premium to spot, mkt sentiments likely to remain positive next week too. Stay with your long positions.
  • HBJ greets you & your family, colleagues and loved ones with warm and wonderful Dussehra. Happy long weekend too. Visit www.stoplosstrade.com for Mega Offer.
  • Notice: 10in3 (10x in 3 years) stock reco for Sept09 will be released during the weekend. Visit www.hbjcapital.com for more info or call +91 9886736791
  • Sensex closed 107pts down at 16673. Nifty closed 31pts down at 4954. Nifty fut 5pts premium to spot. Mkt mood remain +ve, selling was due to long weekend ahead.
  • Good Evening! - Global Mkt Update : DOW & NASDAQ opened 0.5% down. European mkt closing flat to -ve. Visit www.stoplosstrade.com for trading ideas.

Reliance Infratel & Quippo Telecom planning for IPO which will lead to rise in share price of GTL Infrastructure.

Reliance Infratel :-
  1. Plans to dilute 10% stake in IPO. Though the amount to be raised is not known, recent reports have pegged the issue size at Rs 5,000-6,000 crore. Bank of America Merrill Lynch gave Reliance Infratel a rough enterprise value of $13-14 billion in a research note earlier this month.
  2. Reliance Infratel had revenues of Rs 4,934 crore in FY09 with 48,000 towers and 75,000 tenants. In 2007, Reliance Infratel raised Rs 1,400 crore by selling a 5% stake to seven investors - George Soros, HSBC, Fortress Capital, New Silk, Galleon, DA Capital and GLG Capital. The deal valued the firm at Rs 28,000 crore back then.

GTL Infrastructure :-

  1. It has market capitalisation of around Rs 3,200 crore with a portfolio of 7-8,000 towers. Revenue of around Rs250-300Cr FY09.
  2. Now based on the number of towers Reliance Infratel (48K towers) and GTL Infra (7K towers) has, we should value GTL Infra close to Rs5000-7000Cr (which is 50-100% upside from the current valuation of Rs3200Cr.
  3. Discounting 50% in the above calculation, assuming big house backing behind Reliance Infratel and not considering # of tenants in case of GTL (no info available as such) and due to low revenue of GTL which is just Rs250-300Cr, we can at least see 50% upside in GTL Infra share price from here!!!

Another non-listed player planning for IPO is Quippo Telecom Infrastructure (QTIL) which has merged with Wireless-TT Info-Services Limited (WTTIL), the tower arm of Tata Teleservices Limited, to form the largest independent player in this space.

Hence, when there will be next wave for listing these type of tower companies in the market, we will see valuation of existing players rising to fill the gap.

- JK

Nifty may scale another 100-200 points but it will find it difficult to hold on. A correction is overdue and it may happen next week.

  • Sensex gainers comprised HDFC (3.85%), HDFC Bank (3.72%), HCL Technologies (3.54%), BPCL (3.32%) and Ranbaxy Laboratories (2.62%).
  • Losers were Hindalco Industries (-4.2%), Nalco (-3.29%), Infosys Technologies (-3.16%), Suzlon (-2.91%) and Tata Communications (-2.76%).
  • Market breadth on BSE showed 1,466 advances against 1,289 declines.
  • India's wholesale price index-based inflation rate rose 0.37 per cent in the week ended September 12 compared to 0.12 per cent a week earlier.

- Team SLT

Dena Bank trading at a discount to book, can be a good pick around Rs64-65 levels for medium term.

  • Dena Bank (CMP Now!!!) has been showing lot of resilience and has been moving up with gradual levels with good accumulation.
  • Expect the scrip to inch up further high till Rs 68 to Rs 70 kind of trading range and one can maintain a stop loss below Rs 60 levels. Target can be around 75-80 levels in next 10 trading sessions.
  • On Sept 24th, UCO Bank, Bank of Maharashtra and Dena Bank were up 6-10%.

DISCLAIMER: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or any invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures nor other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). Investors/traders should do their due diligence before taking any action based on our analysis.

Stoplosstrade.com or any of its associates or employees does not accept any liability whatsoever direct or indirect that may arise from the use of the information herein.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

No posting on daily live trading calls at SLT : Effective from Sept 23rd 2009

Dear Trading Members,

Since we are going to provide free access to all for www.stoplosstrade.com from Sept 25th, hence we have decided not to provide live update of the trading calls here. You will continue to get the trading calls at yahoo msg or thru sms.

Various economic & market related postings will continue at this blog.

-Team SLT

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Sept 22nd : Live Market Trading Calls Update (Black) & Post Market Update (Blue) : [Profit 30pts in Nifty + descent gains in cash mkt calls]

  • Buy call on Sankhya Infotech [532972] at 31; SL below 27 & Target 42/60 in next 1 to 3 months is up 10% at 33.50. (10:49) www.stoplosstrade.com +919886736791 {This cash market call was given on the blog yesterday night itself, early movers must have got hold of this stock which was up 10% with descent volume, pls buy/hold for next 1 month to see 30% upside at least}
  • Buy Nifty Fut around 5015-20, SL 4995, TGT 5042/5050 (11:04) www.stoplosstrade.com +919886736791
  • Pls contine to hold Tata Steel 520 Call Option (Oct) for now, it will bounce from 23-25 range (11:37) www.stoplosstrade.com +919886736791 {Don't panic with the fall in Tata Steel share price, today there was profit booking in metals hence it was not moving up, soon the upmove will continue, we have a target for Tata Steel above 600 by Oct'09 end hence stay invested}
  • Book complete profit in Bajaj Holdings at 497-500 (High 512), buy given at 470. Hold cash mkt calls given for Eastern Silk, Intellvisions & Bihar Sponge: JK {Apart from Bajaj & Bihar Sponge other cash mkt calls were muted, one need to hold these stocks for at least 3-5 days to see 10-20% gain or more}
  • Buy Pantaloon Retail above 343, SL 339, TGT 345/349/354 : JK {Technically strength is building up in Pantaloon may be due to festival session, one can stay with this position for next 2-3 trading session}
  • Pls contd to hold Nifty Fut buy given at 5015-20, SL 4995, TGT 5042/5050. Mkt likely to move up further and close around Nifty 5050 : JK
  • Book partial profit in Nifty Fut at 5035, move SL to 5015, look for next TGT 5050 : JK
  • Book complete profit in Nifty Fut at 5045-47 : JK {Although market looks a bit over valued still we reco trader to be long with lighter positions, we might see up move of another 50-100pts in Nifty}

Good Day!!!

- JK

Monday, September 21, 2009

Cash Mkt Call : Buy Sankhya Infotech [BSE Code : 532972] around 31-32; SL below 27 & Target 42/60 in next 1 to 3 months


Basic Data:-
  1. CMP = Rs 30 [CMP Now!!!]
  2. Volume = 30K/day
  3. High/Low = 98/11
  4. 1 month gain = 19% & 1 week gain = 12%
AGM meeting on Sept 30th 2009: 12th Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the Company to be held on September 30, 2009 to take a call on...
  1. To Increase in the Authorized Share Capital from Rs. 15.00 crores to Rs. 18.00 crores with an addition of Rs. 3.00 crores.
  2. The resolution to allot 40,50,000 warrants to the Promoters and their associates as per the prevailing regulations.
  3. Consent for merger of M/s. Talent Sprint Pvt. Ltd, Hyderabad, headed by Dr. Santanu PAUL for stock swap deal into Sankhya InfoTech Ltd, subject to the approvals of legal, stock exchange, SEBI and other regulators as necessary.
- Team SLT

Friday, September 18, 2009

Sept 18th : Live Market Trading Calls Update (Black) & Post Market Update (Blue)

11:12am - Mkt under consolidation, no clear move as of now. Pls buy/hold TISCO 520 Call (Oct Series) around Rs35-36, SL 25, TGT 50/70 in next 10 day : JK

11:17am - Intraday Cash Mkt Call: Buy Punj Lloyd at 275, SL 270, TGT 280/285/292 : JK

2:58pm - Buy Nifty Fut around 4980, SL 4964, TGT 4995/5010 : JK

3:20pm - Pls close your Nifty fut position around 4980-85 levels if there is no move in next 15min. Pls don't carry Nifty & Punj Lloyd Ltd pos for next week: JK

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Sept 17th : Live Market Trading Calls Update (Black) & Post Market Update (Blue)

10:52am - Buy/Hold TISCO 520 Call (Oct Series) around Rs36-37, SL 25, TGT 50/70. Buy Bihar Sponge at 13.50-13.70, SL 12, TGT 18-20; Hold other cash mkt calls given: JK

11:47am - High Risk, High Return Stock Option Call : Buy IDBI 110 Call (Sept Series) around 6.50-7, SL 5.10, TGT 8.50/10 in next 1-2 days: JK

11:59am - Intraday Nifty Fut Call : Buy Nifty Fut around 4990-92, SL 4978, TGT 5010/5022/5040 : JK

12:09pm - SL triggered for Nifty Fut Call at 4978, Pls exit: JK

1:32pm - Buy Nifty Fut around 4975-78, SL 4760, TGT 4995/5010 : JK

2:28pm -Book complete profit in IDBI 110 Call (Sept Series) at Rs 8, buy given at 6.50. Pls exit Nifty Fut at 4975 (marginal profit/loss), don't see any active movement

This is a momentum driven market, one should not fight it, it can surprise us on the upside.

Institutional buying for the second day in metal, banking and auto stocks pushed the Nifty above the 4900 mark for the first time since May 28, 2008. It closed above 4950 for the first time since May 22, 2008. The Sensex closed at 16,679, up 225 points and the Nifty at 4,962, up 71 points, (provisional data). The Nifty September futures closed with 5 points premium.

This market is not being driven by fundamentals at this point in time; it is more liquidity-driven. In the last couple of sessions, we have seen the foreign institutional investors pumping in quite a bit of money. So as long as liquidity is there bulls will try and take the markets to higher levels. We feel that liquidity flows will continue to be robust because India, by virtue of its relatively high growth, will attract smart money in the coming quarters and coming months.

We have now broken out of an ascending triangle which was close to 100 days in the making and that was very powerful bullish signal. Once you see a corrective decline that would be a buy opportunity which could take the rally to termination point anything between 5,100 and 5,200.

South Korea is getting into the developed market. So there is a lot of portfolio rebalancing on the emerging market side. We have seen very strong FII buying yesterday also both F&O and Cash was Rs 1,500 crore. Once that type of liquidity comes in then obviously Nifty can go much higher.

Everyone is actually waiting for 4,700 and when the consensus is 4,700, market normally moves opposite from the contrarian side. That is the thing that we have seen and I guess today also we will be seeing a gap-up opening followed by short covering and market will be moving quite up.

Sector in focus: Midcap Banking Space [public sector undertaking banks (PSU)] Eg: SBI, BOI or IDBI etc.
  1. It looks very attractive; there are a lot of fundamental reasons for that. For example, from mark-to-market to held-to-maturity (HTM) category what the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is doing, will reduce the chances of provisioning losses if interest rate goes up. So everybody is thinking that the banking sector will be doing badly because the interest rate will go up but if the portfolio moves to HTM that doesn’t happen.
  2. Kharif growth which was not that great may happen in the second half and that is what RBI is also banking on. So banking sector can do well for the foreseeable future and 23-24% of the weightage is banking. So if banking moves up, Nifty also moves up. 5,200 looks likely according to me.
  3. The bond yields seems to have topped at this point of time and after climbing quite rapidly around 7.5, they are showing signs of topping out and will probably ease over the next few weeks and months. That will help the bank treasuries to show much larger gains on account of their treasury portfolio and that is keeping the overall banking sector stocks, and particularly, the midcap is on a very strong wicket.
  4. In the next quarter, and subsequently, in the second half there will be higher credit growth, assuming the banks would have better business in the second half of the year. So on that basis good amount of accumulation has also taken place and some amount of quantity has been picked-up by some of the funds in the last few days from the banking space.

There is enough amount of money sitting in the system and if the market falls by 3–5% for some reason then definitely there is going to be good buying coming in and give support to the market, which can probably, in subsequent periods, take the market up. There is a lot of aggressive play going on in the market. That’s what my sense is that the market is ready to move into real estate or ready to move into sectors that have already moved up to quite a good degree.

-Team SLT

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Sept 16th : Live Market Trading Calls Update (Black) & Post Market Update (Blue)

10:27am - Book partial profit in Unitech 110 Call Option buy given at 4.50, now 6, move SL to 5. Buy ICICI Bank 840 Call Option at 25-26, SL 21, TGT 30/35+ : JK

{Unitech 110 call given yesterday at Rs4.50 was trading around 6.50 today, although there is upside in this counter yet we suggested taking profit off the table. Banking sector is going to be in focus in near term hence we suggested a buy in ICICI Bank counter which has given almost 40% ROI in just 1 day}

12:31pm - Book PP in Bihar Sponge at 13.16, SL 12; Book PP in Ranbaxy at 352, SL 345; Hold Intellvisions SL 25; Hold Bajaj Holdings SL 475; Hold Easter Silk SL 15: JK


{Bihar Sponge is showing good strength, hence one MUST hold this for next 5-10 days till it hits the target. Ranbaxy was also doing good today. Intellvision had 10% move in two consecutive days during the past hence some consolidation seen here, similarly Bajaj & Easten Silk can give descent return over next 5-10 days}

1:41pm - Book partial profit in ICICI Bank 840 Call Option at Rs30, buy given at Rs25, move SL to Cost (Rs25-26). Hold Unitech 110 Call Option with SL 5: JK


{Our 1st tgt was ahieved in ICICI Bank hence PP was suggested}

2:31pm - Book complete profit in ICICI Bank 840 Call Option at Rs35 (final tgt), buy given at Rs25. Total Profit Rs3500/lot : JK


{Here, one can see our next tgt in ICICI Bank counter achieved and a gain of 40% on ROI is made, buy given at Rs25 and final exit at Rs35}

2:58pm - Positional Call : Buy TISCO (Tata Steel) 520 Call (Oct Series; lot size = 764) around Rs35-37, SL 25, TGT 50/70 in next 10-12 days holding period: JK


{Metals are in limelight, Tata Steel was already up 7% today, the reason behind this call was apart from technical factors, over all global economy showing sign of recover, which will lead to commodity demand hence steel. Make a note that this call was for Oct series and one must need to hold it for next 10-15 days to get the max out of it.}

Gold Bullion's New Friend - China : Is $1,000 an ounce is just the start?

Nice article on Gold......just for reading purpose, we don't reco any views on Gold thru this article.

We have waited for nearly 18 months for Gold to make a convince move beyond $ 1000 an ounce, and today it seems to be closing at the NYMEX at $ 1009 an ounce. While this is sweet, the bigger event is the news emanating from China.

The government of PRC is telling its people to buy gold. What's more, every bank will sell gold and silver bullion bars in four different sizes to individuals, and China's largest bank, the ICBC, is setting up a precious metals department to handle growing investor demand.

Hong Kong is taking delivery of its gold
The tremors in the gold market began last week when Hong Kong announced it was pulling all its physical gold holdings from depositories in the UK and moving them home to newly-built vaults near the city's airport. We've said it before: wealth is moving east. Yes, Hong Kong has ambitions to be the bullion trading hub of the Orient, but there could be more to it than that.


It's estimated that they own some $63m worth of gold. In the international scheme of things, that isn't much. There might even be a banker somewhere who takes that home this year as his bonus. What is noteworthy is that Hong Kong is taking delivery of its metal.

Many gold followers have argued that if everyone who owned futures, exchange traded funds (ETFs), warrants, options, CFDs and any other gold derivative you care to mention decided to take delivery of the gold against which their contract is written, there wouldn't be enough physical metal to go around, and the price would rocket.

Indeed it was the French government's insistence in the late '60s and early '70s on taking delivery of the metal in lieu of US dollars that eventually forced the US off the gold standard in 1971. The US didn't have the physical metal to back the quantity of dollars it had put out. Gold quickly went up tenfold. Perhaps Hong Kong is taking delivery while it still can.

Just a few days later, Barrick, the world's largest gold producer, announced plans to eliminate its gold hedges. (Hedging is when a miner sells its metal before it has actually been mined in order to lock in a price.

This can work well in a falling market, as you have sold your metal for a higher price than it is when you actually mine it; but it can be a disaster in a rising market because you miss out on the higher prices).

Barrick's hedging strategy has rightly attracted a great deal of criticism. The company failed to recognise a bull market and sold its gold too cheap. The chart below shows what a costly error this has been.

The black line shows how the gold price has performed over the past ten years. The blue line shows the rise in the HUI, the index of unhedged gold miners. The comparatively feeble-looking yellow line shows Barrick's woeful share price performance over the same period. If only it hadn't hedged, it'd be up some 500% …

So costly has been Barrick's hedging strategy, a contrarian might argue that their now eliminating their hedges could mark the top of the market.


But what's interesting is that rather than deliver the gold it has sold forward, Barrick has chosen to raise cash by issuing shares and using the money – some $3.5bn – to pay off its obligations. In other words, the largest gold miner in the world thinks that it's worth buying its way out of the hedges with cash now, because it'll get a better price for its gold in the future.

Why the Chinese government is telling its people to buy gold
Meanwhile we hear that China has doubled its reserves to 1,054 tonnes. They are buying gold, 'carefully so as not to stimulate the market' says Chinese economic ambassador Cheng Siwei, reports Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Telegraph. Siwei continues: "Credit in China is too loose. We have a bubble in the housing market and in stocks so we have to be very careful, because this could fall down."


Is the risk that 'this could fall down' the reason that the Chinese authorities are pushing their citizens so hard to buy gold – so that they have some protection from any credit bubble collapse? Analyst Paul Mylchreest notes in his Thunder Road Report that the main, state-owned television company is promoting gold and silver as an investment.

The government is telling its people to buy gold. What's more, every bank will sell gold and silver bullion bars in four different sizes to individuals, and China's largest bank, the ICBC, is setting up a precious metals department to handle growing investor demand.

Where is all this gold going to come from? Well, if 1.3 billion people start buying one-ounce coins, heaven only knows. China is already the biggest gold producer, last year superseding South Africa. Pretty soon it will replace India as the largest consumer.

And if the Chinese authorities are pushing gold as an investment to their citizens, it obliges them to 'protect' the gold price, as Lawrence Williams of Mineweb notes. It would be tantamount to a betrayal if it fell, never mind the loss of all-important face that would result. Just as the US and the UK stepped in to bail out their banks, so China will be duty bound to prop up gold.

But the surprising strength we have seen in gold over the summer – we never really got the summer low I was looking for – suggests that somebody is already 'buying the dips' anyway. Indeed the gold price has this week repeatedly gone through $1,000 during overnight trading, only to fall back when the US markets open. That indicates that the buyers are out east somewhere. I have written about this before: Gold is shifting from West to East – along with the balance of power.

$1,000 an ounce is just the start
There are some who argue convincingly that the $1,000 will mark a double top in gold and then we'll go down from here. There are other technical indicators that suggest a top.


But there is too much impetus to force the price higher. We may hover around here for a while - in spring 2008 oil spent almost six weeks bouncing between $95 and $100 before bursting through – and $100 oil is like $1,000 gold.

Indeed there is a little bit too much bullishness about the place at the moment, so a pullback would be healthy. But once we have a break above $1,000 and a weekly close above the old high at $1,032, the news on gold will be splashed everywhere. It all points to much higher prices in time.

- Source : Web
DISCLAIMER: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or any invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures nor other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). Investors/traders should do their due diligence before taking any action based on our analysis.

Stoplosstrade.com or any of its associates or employees does not accept any liability whatsoever direct or indirect that may arise from the use of the information herein.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Sept 15th : Live Market Trading Calls Update (Black) & Post Market Update (Blue)

9:55am - Resistance levels are 4865/4895 & intraday support levels are 4785/4745. Pls continue to hold Nifty Fut short pos carried over, we will provide update on this. {Market opened with gap-up, Nifty performed better than the other global markets, looking at the last 5 days consolidation & weakness in Indian market & global market we suggested buying and holding Nifty short positions which went wrong call today}

11:58am - Hold Intellvisions Soft with SL 24.50; Birla Shloka SL 74 triggered; Hold Bihar Sponge with SL 12; Hold Ranbaxy Lab with SL 336 & Bajaj Holdings with SL 470: JK {We got a concern from one of our loyal client saying that Ranbaxy Lab SL was triggered yesterday itself at 336 then why hold call is given for it today. Just to clarify that, in case if SL is getting triggered for any stock, it would be advisable to wait for our sms alert asking you to exit or you can ask in yahoo or even calls us to take the next move. What we mean to say is, exact point from where stock can bounce back can't be practically identified hence 1-2 points up/down is possible, so always look for the sms alert before closing any positions}

12:53pm - Buy Unitech (Sept Series; lot size 4500) 110 Call Option around 4.30-4.50, SL 3.30, TGT 6.50/8.50. Holding period 2-3 days: JK {Unitech call did well and closed at 5.25, it is advisable to hold this call for next 2-3 days}

1:00pm - Cash Mkt Delivery Based Call : Buy
Eastern Silk Industries Ltd (Code : 590022) around Rs 17-18, SL at 15, TGT 28-30 in short term (1 month holdings) : JK {This is one of the good call technically, hence invest and hold for medium term}

3:18pm - Nifty is able to sustain the gains today inspite of weak global clue. Pls close the Nifty Fut short pos (if any). Hold Unitech Opt & Cash Mkt Calls given : JK {Unfortunately, our call on Nifty Fut to go short and hold for today turned out to be a very bad call. Weakness is seen in the global market, anytime we are ready for 5-8% correction but when? is the question. Hence we advised our clients to close the short position in Nifty.}


- JK

Monday, September 14, 2009

Sept 14th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Profit = 14pts in Nifty Fut; Cash calls doing good]

11:00am - Buy Nifty Fut around 4806-4810, SL 4788, TGT 4828/4840 : JK, http://www.stoplosstrade.com/

11:35am - Intraday Call: Buy Ranbaxy Lab around 342-344, SL 336, TGT 350/357/365. Cash mkt delivery call: Buy Bajaj Holdings at 470, SL 420, TGT 535/565 : JK

11:45am - Book partial profit in Nifty Fut at 4822, move SL to 4805, look for next TGT 4840 : JK, http://www.hbjcapital.com/

12:17pm - Pls exit from Nifty Fut as trailing SL 4805 triggered : JK

2:53pm - Mkt not able to move up during last 5 days, global weakness might pull us down. Sell Nifty Fut at 4810-15, SL 4850, TGT 4760/4740+. Carry this for tomm.

Friday, September 11, 2009

Have your portfolio positioned for a move down that might begin later in September.

Sept 1st 2009 - Alert : The greed factor has overrun the fear factor, expect 5-10% correction in Nifty in Sept'09. - This was the alert given by us on Sept 1st (Tue) and the next day onward we suggested our trading members to book complete profit on all the cash market positions. Next 1-2 days (Wed & Thru) market were weak but on friday, sept 4th there was sharp upside which continued on monday, sept 7th. Again from Sept 8th till today there was so called consolidation in the market, was it a consolidation or something else cooking up?

If you ask any analyst today, everyone is talking about market going to Nifty 5000 or more, but markets are populare for making most of these analyst wrong. During last 4 days, there was some kind of uneasiness seen in the market. Advance/decline is also biased towards decline.

When analyzing monthly stock market trends, We use the S&P 500 charts to identify important trend lines. The daily S&P 500 shows the rise to just above the 1,000 level at our target of 1,205 (S&P is 1041 as on Sept 11th). Average volume has been declining, though it is summer, when trading volume tends to decline.

RSI is above 50 indicating an up trend. The MACD turned down at 9-day moving average, a sell sign. The Slow Stochastic is above 80, where it will eventually turn down, giving a sell sign.
-
The daily chart of the S&P 500 is telling us the rally is encountering resistance and could be turning down. The indicators are telling us the current high levels could be at risk of a down turn and caution is warranted.

In addition, we are entering the two historically weak months of September and October, when the market has moved down the most. this combined with the warning in the charts, is telling us to take steps to add further down side protection, such as closing part of your longs positions, buy protective put options and sell covered calls. you might even consider buying one or more of the ETFs that short the market.

Given this analysis of the S&P 500 trend line charts, it is important to have your portfolio positioned for a move down that might begin later in September. If we do get a move down it will be important to look for the bottom as it should offer a good place to add to long positions.

When the pull back ends, look to add to long positions with stocks and ETFs from the sectors that are likely to outperform the overall market. Keep in mind, Warren Buffett's first rule of investing is to not lose money. Be patient waiting for good entry points.

- JK

Sept 11th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Profit = 15pts in Nifty Fut & Cash Call : Intellvision up 10% today]

10:17am - Buy Intellvisions Software Ltd [531777] around 23-25; SL below 21; Target 35 within 1 month. Hold Birla Shloka Edutech & Bihar Sponge Iron, both doing well.

12:32pm - Fresh long pos in Nifty Fut can be taken around 4810-15, SL 4790, TGT 4830/4842. Contd to hold your Nifty Fut & Nifty 4800 Call carried over from yesterday: JK

1:31pm - Those who has taken fresh pos today in Nifty Fut shd book partial profit at 4825, move SL to 4810, look for TGT 4842. Others need to wait for right exit.

1:59pm - Trailing SL 4810 triggered for those who has taken fresh position in Nifty Fut today, pls exit.

3:00pm - Intellvisions Soft up 10% & Bihar Sponge Iron up 3% today : Book partial profit in both. Buy Birla Shloka Edutech at Rs79, move SL to 74, TGT 120+ in 10 days.

3:21pm - Traders who has carried over the Nifty Fut & Nifty 4800 Call Opt from yesterday to today, should exit Nifty Fut at 4845 & Nifty 4800 Call at 120.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Cash Mkt Delivery Based Call - Hold this stock for 1 month to get 50% returns!!!

- Team SLT

Sept 10th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Profit = Nifty calls carried for next day + Bihar Sponge & Birla Shloka up 5%]

10:33am - Buy Nifty 4800 Call at 145-150, SL 130, TGT 170/180. Buy/hold Birla Shloka Edutech (Code : 511607) up 5% & Bihar Sponge Iron (Code: 500058) up 5% today: JK

11:24am - Buy Nifty Fut around 4865-4870, SL 4850, TGT 4885/4897. http://www.hbjcapital.com/ / +91 9886736791.

12:07pm - Pls continue to hold Nifty Fut & Nifty 4800 Call Opt for today. We will let you know the next move. Remove the SL for today.

3:08pm - Pls hold for tomm, Nifty Future bought at 4865 & Nifty 4800 Call Opt bought at 145. We see mkt rebound if not today then tomm, both calls are carried for tomm.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Sure Call : Birla Shloka Edutech Ltd (BSE Code : 511607)

Buy Birla Shloka Edutech Ltd (Code : 511607) around Rs86-90, SL 80, TGT 120 in next 10-15 days.

Birla Shloka to raise Rs 34.78 cr via follow-on offer & the current Mcap of the company is just Rs50Cr, it's simple to assume that dilution in equity will be max 40-50% hence the stock price is expected to run-up till the Mcap of company becomes Rs80-100Cr which is 30% appreciation in price hence buy at Rs90 and sell at 120!!!

Birla Shloka Edutech, the Yash Birla group company, has filed draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the market regulator Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI). It is planning to raise around Rs 34.78 crore via this follow-on public offer.

The company is engaged in sales and services of varied products to education institutions. It is engaged in providing IT infrastructure and imparting IT and IT enabled education in schools of various boards. It setups computer labs, digital classroom solutions and audio visual solutions in schools along with software product XL @ School which is a curriculum based interactive multimedia software for mathematics and science subjects.

Proceeds from the issue will be used for capital expenditure for Turnkey Projects executed by the company under the BOOT model (Rs 15 crore); capital expenditure on upgradation of infrastructure and content development for XL @ School (Rs 9.5 crore); funding the proposed M&A activities (Rs 4.5); for meeting the working capital requirements (Rs 2.13 crore) and issue expenses (Rs 3.03 crore).

For the year ended March 31, 2009, it has reported profit after tax of Rs 31.45 lakh on total income of Rs 104.03 crore.

- Team SLT

Sept 9th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Profit = Both Cash Mkt Calls Up 5% Today

10:30am - Buy Bihar Sponge Iron Ltd. (BSE Code : 500058) around Rs11.50 - 12.50; SL10; TGT Rs18-20 in next 10-12 trading days. Mkt after consolidation, likely to move up.

11:02am - Buy Nifty Fut around 4810-15, SL 4794, TGT 4830/4845. Buy Nifty 4800 Call Opt at 119-120, SL 110, TGT 135.

1:00pm - Mkt not moving up as expected, pls exit from Nifty Fut at 4805-10 & Nifty 4800 Call Option at 116. Hold Bihar Sponge Iron Ltd bought at 12.50 : JK

2:05pm - Sure Call : Buy Birla Shloka Edutech Ltd (Code : 511607) around Rs86-90, SL 80, TGT 120 in next 10-15 days. This is a MUST Buy Call from http://www.stoplosstrade.com/

Promotional Penny Stock Delivery Based Cash Mkt Call - Bihar Sponge Iron Ltd. (BSE Code : 500058)

At http://www.multibaggerpennystocks.com/ we use to provide cash market penny stock calls called "Instant Profit", one such call was Jhagadia Copper Ltd (BSE Code : 504920) which has given 20% returns in 4 days to MPS - "Penny Stocks" Subscribers as well as SLT - "Make Money Trading Calls" Subscribers. Those who missed the above promotional call can grab the next one mentioned below.....

  • Buy Bihar Sponge Iron Ltd. (BSE Code : 500058) around Rs 11.50 - 12.50; SL @10; TGT Rs 18-20 in next 10-12 trading days.
  • As on Sept 8th : CMP = 12.04 & Volume = 60-70K Shares

This Instant Profit recommendation is based purely on technicals, as the counter has witnessed a breakout against a general market trend. This recommendation is meant for high risk profile individuals as Risk/Reward ratio is equally balanced.

- Team SLT

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Sept 8th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Profit of 20pts in Nifty Fut & Loss of 15pts in Nifty Call Opt]

11:25am - Nifty likely to move up further after brief consolidation. Intraday clear trend has not emerged yet. Hold your long position, don't short this mkt : JK

12:05pm - Buy Nifty Fut around 4815-20, SL 4789, TGT 4835/4848. Buy Nifty 4800 Call Option at 127-128, SL 112, TGT 145/160 : JK

12:28pm - Book partial profit in Nifty Fut at 4835. Move SL to 4815, look for next TGT 4848. Hold Nifty 4800 Call Option bought at 127-128, SL 112, TGT 145/160 : JK

2:23pm - Pls exit from Nifty Fut long pos at SL 4815. Trailing SL triggerred. Hold Nifty 4800 Call Option with SL 112.

2;30pm - Pls exit from Nifty 4800 Call at SL 112. Although mkt is in uptrend but profit booking can't be ruled out : JK

2:54pm - Buy Nifty Fut around 4808-10, SL 4789, TGT 4830

3:17pm - Book complete profit in Nifty Fut at 4810-4815. Mkt likely to extend the upward move tomm, DOW fut is up and global sentiments +ve.

Monday, September 7, 2009

Jesse Lauriston Livermore : A MUST read auto-biography for every traders.

Jesse Lauriston Livermore (July 26, 1877 — November 28, 1940), also known as the Boy Plunger, was an early 20th century stock trader. He was famed for making and losing several multi-million dollar fortunes and short selling during the stock market crashes in 1907 and 1929.

Born in Acton, Massachusetts, Jesse Livermore started his trading career at the age of fifteen. He ran away from home with his mother's blessing to escape a life of farming his father wished him to have. He then began his career by posting stock quotes at the Paine Webber brokerage in Boston.

Livermore first became famous after the Panic of 1907, when he short sold the market as it crashed. He noticed conditions where a lack of capital existed to buy stock. Accordingly, he predicted that there would be a sharp drop in prices when many speculators were simultaneously forced to sell by margin calls and a lack of credit. With the lack of capital, there would be no buyers in sight to absorb the sold stock, further driving down prices. After the crash and its aftermath, he was worth $3 million.

He proceeded to lose 90% of that 1907 fortune on a blown cotton trade. He violated many of his key rules; he listened to another person's advice (he preferred working alone) and added to a losing position. He continued losing money in the flat markets from 1908-1912. He was $1 million in debt and declared bankruptcy. He proceeded to regain his fortune and repay his creditors during the World War I bull market and resulting downtrend.

He owned a series of mansions around the world, each fully staffed with servants, a fleet of limousines, and a steel-hulled yacht for trips to Europe. He married Dorothy, a beautiful Ziegfeld Follies showgirl when he was about 40 years old.

Livermore continued to make money in the bull markets of the 1920s. In 1929, he noticed market conditions similar to that of the 1907 market. He began shorting various stocks and adding to his positions and they kept declining in price. When just about everyone in the markets lost money in the Wall Street crash of 1929, Livermore was worth $100 million after his short-selling profits.

In 1940, Livermore died at the age of 63 as the result of suicide. The police revealed that there was a suicide note of eight small handwritten pages in Livermore's personal notebook. It was reported in the November 30 issue of the New York Tribune. Although untouchable trusts and cash assets at his death totalled over $5 million, Livermore had failed to regain his trading confidence before his death. A lifelong history of clinical depression had become the dominant factor in his final years.

"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis." - Livermore


"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor." - Livermore

- Team SLT

Sept 7th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Profit = 27pts in Nifty & 20% gain in Jhagadia Copper in last 4 days]

11:10am - Hold Jhagadia Copper trading at 6.84, SL 6.52, TGT 10. Hold Alok Ind now 23.60, SL 21.5, TGT 30. Hold Infosys 2190 Call Opt trading at 80: JK

11:58am - Buy Nifty Fut around 4730-35, SL 4710, TGT 4752

12:34pm - Book partial profit in Nifty Fut at 4745, move SL to 4730, look for final revised TGT 4757.

12:46pm - Final TGT 4757 in Nifty Fut achieved, book complete profit. Today's profit is 27pts or Rs1350/lot in Nifty Fut & 20% gain in Jhagadia Copper in last 4 days: JK

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Profit for the week : Aug 31st to Sept 4th [48pts in Nifty Fut + 25% appreciation in Cash mkt calls + Rs52,200 profit in Stock Opt Call]

  1. 48pts gain in Nifty Fut +
  2. 25% appreciation in Cash mkt calls +
  3. Rs52,200 profit in Stock Opt Call
Sept 4th - Profitable cash mkt call (15% gain in just 3 days). Link
Sept 3rd - 28pts in Nifty Future Calls. Link
Sept 2nd - Profitable cash mkt call (10% gain in just 2 days). Link
Sept 1st - 20pts in Nifty Future + Rs52,200 in Unitech Call Option. - Link
Aug 31st - Due to system upgrade on Monday, Aug 31st, there was no trading calls provided for 1 day.

-JK, Senior Technical Analyst

Friday, September 4, 2009

Sept 4th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Profit = Jhagadia Copper daily UC from last 3 days]

10:01am - US mkt closed 0.5% up, Asian mkt flat, For Nifty resistance levels are 4635/4675 and intraday support levels are 4565/4525 : JK

10:25am - Hold Jhagadia Copper (Code :504920) now 6.52, SL 6.21, TGT 10 in 1 months. Buy Alok Ind (521070) between 22/23.5 SL 21.5 Target above Rs. 30 within month: JK

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Sept 3rd : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Profit = 28pts in Nifty & Good profit in Jhagadia Copper]

10:12am - Book partial profit in Jhagadia Copper (Code :504920) bought at 5.70, now 6.21, SL 5.70, TGT 10 in 1 months time. For Infosys 2190 call keep strict SL at ~50.

10:17am - Pls continue to hold Nifty Fut short pos bought at 4618, Keep Strict SL 4639, TGT 4590. Hold Nifty 4300 Put Option bought at 50, SL 35, Intraday TGT 65 : JK

10:24am - Nifty TGT 4590 achieved, book complete profit. Mkt likely to fall further, high risk trader can hold short pos with SL 4610. Hold Nifty 4300 Put with TGT 65.

3:11pm - Nifty TGT 4590 achieved 2nd time, book complete profit. Mkt likely to fall further. Hold Nifty 4300 Put with TGT 65.

The most important rule is: In bull markets, corrections are buying opportunities.

September has historically been the worst month for stocks of the year. Plus it’s followed by October, the month of the most spectacular stock market crashes in history. This is why many bears — who have actually gotten more visible again during the past few weeks — say it’s time to get out of the market now. These seasonal stock market statistics are certainly true. And after the strong gains since the July interim low, the market is due for a correction. Link

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Sept 2nd : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Profit in Tilaknagar & PVP Ventures]

9:50am - Weak global clues might lead to 1-1.5% downside in Nifty today. Resistance 4655/4695 & support 4550/4510. Book profits from long pos, Sept-Oct not good for mkt.

10:26am - Pls book complete profit in TilakNagar at 74-75 (ex-bonus), PVP Ventures at 52, Unitech 90 Call at 15.10. For Infosys 2190 call keep strict SL at 50: JK

10:51am - Sell Nifty Fut around 4618, SL 4639, TGT 4590

11:03am - Buy Nifty 4300 Put Option around 50, SL 35, TGT 80. Hold it for next 5-10 days. Mkt showing weakness might fall 1-1.5% today.

11:30am - Pls continue to hold Nifty short positions, we will let you know the next move.

1:31pm - Pls continue to hold Nifty Fut short pos bought at 4618, Keep Strict SL 4639, TGT 4590. Hold Nifty 4300 Put Option bought at 50, SL 35, Intraday TGT 65 : JK

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Alert : The greed factor has overrun the fear factor, expect 5-10% correction in Nifty in Sept'09.


Local Market Update:-
It was a dramatic U-turn on Dalal Street. The frontline indices plunged sharply in late trade, erasing all of morning’s gains. The Nifty and Sensex slipped nearly 2.5% from the day's high. The Nifty ended the day at 4,625 down 37 points, while the Sensex shut shop at 15,551 down 115 points. The midcaps too followed their bigger peers. The advance-decline ratio stood at 1:2. Meanwhile, volumes came in above average at over the one lakh crore mark.
-
Is this a type of trend reversal? Is this a start of yet another correction? Are we going to see similar Sept-Oct month as we saw in 2008?
JK - Technically look at the chart above, both short & long term stoch are in overbought zone & Nifty is heading towards 20 days EMA, once it crosses 20 EMA it would be a clear downtrend, hence we at SLT are issuing an alert to all our trading members, "Stay Caution in Sept month, close most of your long positions, take profits off the table in your portfolio holdings and either stay away from market or start building short position now itself."
-
Global Market Update:-
U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday, pushing the S&P 500 below the 1,000 threshold, as uncertainty over financial companies' health prompted a sell-off, while concerns mounted about the validity of a rally that has driven stocks up about 50 percent from March.
-
Facts from the past, will history repeat?
With the market debacle of September 2008 still a fresh memory, many investors are wondering if they should do things differently now that stocks are facing another potential selloff. The lesson of last year's meltdown-where many stayed in the market and saw their portfolios cut in half-seems clear: maintaining a buy-and-hold strategy no matter what's going on in the markets is passe.
  1. Navigating a Nervous Market
  2. Buy on the Dips: Strategist

Market froth over the past six months, in which the major averages have risen nearly 50 percent, has sparked memories of what began last year's massive drop from the historic highs of October 2007.

It's the reminders of what has happened since the credit crisis began, and its apex last September with the implosion of Lehman Brothers, that has inspired a mindset that investors need to be prepared for what might lie ahead.

September is Wall Street's worst month anyway, and the early results for this year's version are showing the market is demanding real growth from the economy and earnings before pushing stocks higher.

While the risk-reward scenario is probably less severe than a year ago, the sentiment for buy-and-hold that stung so many investors during the market's dramatic fall seems mostly out of vogue this year.

When the "Great Crash" came in 1929, it came in October. So, too, did the infamous "Crash of '87." And last year, during a tortuous October that led to even lower lows in the months to come, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 19% of its value in just 30 days.

Investors can be excused if the word "October" is one that strikes fear into their hearts.
The trouble is, it's actually September that deals investors the toughest monthly hands.
That's September - as in the month that starts today (Tuesday).

After a rally that's seen U.S. stocks surge 53% from their March lows (including 3.5% in August, alone), "investors are wondering if September will live up to its reputation as the month in which the S&P 500 posts its worst price performance and frequency of decline.

Since 1929, September is actually the worst-performing months for stocks, with the S&P 500 suffering an average decline of 1.3% (compared to an average monthly advance of 0.5%).

- JK, Senior Technical Ananlyst

Sept 1st : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Profit = 20pts in Nifty + Rs52,200 in Unitech]

11:44am - TilakNagar Ind buy given at 218, now 224, SL 200 TGT 250; PVP Ventures buy given at 46 now 53.90, SL 51.35, TGT 60 : Both calls doing good, hold it.

11:47am - Unitech 90 Call, buy given at 7.55 now 19.15, book partial profit & move SL to 15. Infosys 2190 Call, buy given at 80 now 68.40, pls hold it, SL 50.

12:13pm - Buy Nifty Fut around 4720-25, SL 4702, TGT 4745/4760

12:22pm - Special Calls for Penny Stock Traders: Buy Jhagadia Copper Ltd around Rs5.70-5.98, SL 5, TGT 10 in 1 months time. Based on technicals only.

12:40pm -Nifty Fut first TGT 4745 already achieved, book partial profit in Nifty Fut at 4745, move SL to 4720-25. Look for TGT TGT 4760.

12:47pm - Mkt seems to be in +ve move, pls continue to hold Nifty long pos & cash/call options. Another 10-20pts upmove in Nifty likely.

12:53pm - Book partial profit at 4745, keep SL 4720-25, look for final TGT 4760 : JK

1:48pm - Buy Nifty Fut around 4625-30, SL 4605, TGT 4647/4658

1:19pm - Pls book complete profit around 4730-35 in Nifty Future.

1:45pm - Unitech 90 Call Option given on 24th Aug at Rs 7.55 is trading at Rs 19.15, a profit of Rs52,200 in just 7 days. This is "Make Money Call" from SLT.

1:48pm - Buy Nifty Fut around 4625-30, SL 4605, TGT 4647/4658

1:59pm -Pls exit from the Nifty long pos, after hitting 1st TGT of 4647, now it is below SL of 4605 : JK