Saturday, August 29, 2009

Not trading calls on Monday, Aug 31st due to system upgrade at HBJ Capital

Dear Trading Members,

Sorry for the short notice. Due to sysFont sizetem upgrade on Monday, Aug 31st, there will be no trading calls provided for 1 day. We will adjust this accordingly. Sorry for the inconvenience caused.

Regards
Team SLT

Friday, August 28, 2009

Aug 28th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Profit = 17 pts gain in Nifty]

10:45am - Cash mkt update: TilakNagar Ind buy given at 218, now 220, SL 200 TGT 250; PVP Ventures buy given at 46 now 49, SL 42, TGT 55 : Both calls doing good, hold it.

10:55am - Option Update: Unitech 90 Call, buy given at 7.55 now 10.85, book partial profit & move SL to 9. Infosys 2190 Call, buy given at 80 now 62, pls hold it, SL 50.

11:01am - Buy Nifty Fut around 4695-97, SL 4677, TGT 4712/4726 : JK

11:18am - Book partial profit in Nifty Fut at 4712, move SL to 4695, look for next TGT 4726 : JK

11:55am - Pls exit Nifty Fut at 4695 (Cost).

1:58pm -Mkt range bound with high volatility. Resistance at 4715 & support at 4650. Breakout above or below these levels will show clear direction for short term : JK

Aug 28th : Market Update - Flat opening likely but can't ruleout one side move or say directional move today.


Reality & Consumer Durable is going to be focus today, related stocks are likely to move higher. We are expecting Nifty to continue further move upward, if it is able to cross 4715/4745, we can see higher levels. Support can be seen at 4645 level.

Traders should stay long & ride the uptrend in Nifty. Being 1st day after expiry after descent rollover from Aug to Sept, we are expecting market to continue upward journey.

-JK

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Aug 27th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Profit = 9 pts gain in Nifty]

9:55am - Asian mkt down 0.5-1%. For Nifty the resistance level for the day is 4710/4745 and the support levels is 4640/4590 : JK

11:00am - Buy Infosys Tech 2190 Call Opt (Sept Series) around 80-85, SL 65, TGT 150+. Buy Tilak Nagar Ind at 218, SL 200, TGT 250+. Buy PVP Ventures Ltd at 46, SL 40, TGT 55+

12:37pm - Buy Nifty Fut around 4690-95, SL 4679, TGT 4715/4725

1:01pm - Book partial profit in Nifty Fut at 4712, move SL to 4690, next TGT 4725. --->22pts gain in Nifty

1:56pm - Pls continue to hold your Nifty Fut long pos, mkt likely to move up further. Look for TGT 4725, keep SL at 4690.

2:24pm - Pls book complete profit in Nifty Fut at 4690.

2:54pm - Buy Nifty Fut around 4690-95, SL 4677, TGT 4712/4724

3:01pm - Pls exit from Nifty Fut long pos at 4677. ---> 13pts loss in Nifty

Aug 27th : Two Sector Picks from Textile Sector - Buy & hold for 3-4 days.

#1. Buy Alok Industries at Rs23, SL 21, TGT 28.
#2. Buy Arvind Ltd at Rs34, SL 31, TGT 40.

[Above two picks were given keeping trade policy announcement, after the release of policy these stocks started consolidating hence anyone investing in these stocks must stick to the SL levels]

Aug 27th : Cash mkt delivery based calls & Stock Option call : Buy & hold for at least 4-5 days.

#1. Buy Tilak Nagar Industries Ltd at 218, SL 200, TGT 250+.
#2. Buy PVP Ventures Ltd at 46, SL 42, TGT 55+
#3. Buy Infosys Tech 2190 Call Opt (Sept Series) around 80-85, SL 65, TGT 150.
-JK

Aug 27th : Cash Market Calls & Option Update

Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd.
>>Buy call given @ 92-96, SL 86, TGT 120+ in a month.
>>Current Price Rs 93.25 , Pls hold it.

Tanla Solution
>>Buy call given @ 62-64, SL 58, TGT 100 in 2 months.
>>Current Price Rs67.65, Pls hold it.

Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd.
>>IBREL buy given at 272, SL to 280, TGT 300.
>>Current Price Rs279.60, SL triggered hence book complete profit at Rs279.60. Those who has not sold can continue to hold & sell if it opens -ve today.

3i Infotech Ltd
>>3i Info buy given at 82, now 88.65, move SL to 87, TGT 95 : Hold it

Unitech
>>Unitech 90 Call buy given at 7.55 now 8.00 : Hold it.

-JK

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Aug 26th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Loss = 14pts in Nifty]

10:01am - Cash Mkt Delivery Based Calls : Buy Ratnami Metals around 92-96, SL 86, TGT 120+ in a month. Buy Tanla Solution around 62-64, SL 58, TGT 100 in 2 months: JK

10:13am - IBREL buy given at 272, now 290, move SL to 280, TGT 300. 3i Info buy given at 82, now 90.60, move SL to 87, TGT 95. Unitech 90 Call buy given at 7.55 now 8.50

12:17pm: Intraday Call: Sell Nifty SPOT CMP 4677 SL 4696, TGT 4650/4635

12:58pm - Pls exit completely in Nifty Fut short pos at SL 4696. - 19pts loss in Nifty

2:31pm : Buy Nifty Fut around 4680-4685, SL 4666, TGT 4700, 4714 : JK

3:10pm - Pls book complete profit in Nifty Fut long pos at around 4685-90. -5pts gain in Nifty

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Aug 25th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK

10:32am - Buy Nifty Fut around 4628-32, SL 4605, TGT 4649, 4662. Hold your pos in Unitech Option, 3i Info & Indiabulls Real Estate Calls: JK

11:04am - Nifty fell down 0.8% due to Shanghai mkt which is down 4%. Move SL from 4605 to 4600. One can take fresh exposure in Nifty Fut long pos at 4610-15.

11:12am -Pls hold your Nifty long pos. We will let you know when to exit....sudden fall in the mkt might not sustain.

11:30am - Pls exit from Nifty Fut Long Pos at 4595. Sell Nifty Fut around 4595-98, SL 4622, TGT 4555, 4540. Mkt is turning bearish due to Shanghai which is down 4.5%.

11:35am - Shanghai mkt is down 5.18%, Nifty likely to fall 80-100pts today, pls stay in Nifty Fut short pos for intraday only. Keep TGT 4555, 4540 & 4530.

12:06am - Nifty movement today is just following Shanghai mkt up/down. ...unfortunately Nifty Fut Short Call SL triggered at 4622, pls exit from Nifty Short for now.

1:23pm - Buy Nifty Fut around 4660-65, SL 4638, TGT 4682, 4696 : JK

2:40pm - IBREL buy given at 272, now 283, move SL to 275, TGT 300. 3i Info buy given at 82, now 87, move SL to 85, TGT 95. Unitech 90 Call buy given at 7.55 now 8.25.

3:19pm - Pls close your Nifty Fut long pos at 4665-70. Only Cash mkt call on IBREL, 3i Info & Stock Opt of Unitech need to be carried for tomm: JK

Aug 25th: Market Views - Uptrend will continue as long as we get global support; selling pressure only if Shanghai & Hang Sang both falls around 3-4%

Today once again Shanghai Index was down 3.5% in the early trade which lead to all other asian market to fall 0.5-1%. SHANGHAI'S key stock index declined for the first time in four days and ended below 2,900 points in the morning trade among speculation excess cash will not continue to support the stock market in the second half of the year.

Back home, we have seen FII & DII both buying in the market. FII are buying in index and selling in index option means in short term they are bullish but hedging their position by selling in index option. Stay long if you want to make descent profit.

-JK

Monday, August 24, 2009

Aug 24th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Realized Profit = Rs1600/lot in Nifty Future & Notional Profit = Rs4500/lot in Stock Option]

10:28am - Cash Mkt Call: Buy Indiabulls Real Estate around 272, SL 255, TGT 300. 3i Infotech trading at Rs86, buy call was given at 82, SL 75, TGT 95 : Hold it.

11:00am - Stock Option Call: Buy Unitech Rs 90 Call Option (Sept Series ONLY) around Rs7.50-7.60, SL 6.30, TGT 10 : JK

12:13pm - Nifty Fut Intraday Call : Buy Nifty Aug Fut around 4628-30, SL 4610, TGT 4654, 4668. Trend is up, you might need to avg down if Nifty falls a bit.

1:07pm - Nifty Future 1st TGT 4654 achieved (Profit = Rs 1300/lot) book partial profit, move SL to 4620-25, look for second TGT of 4668: JK

2:35pm: Pls hold your Nifty fut long pos, mkt likely to take upmove soon. One can even take fresh exposure at 4640-45, SL 4620. Look for TGT 4668+ : JK

3:21pm - Pls book complete profit around Nifty Fut 4650-60 (Profit = Rs 1600/lot). Hold Unitech Rs90 Call Opt trading at 8.60, buy given at 7.55 (Notional Profit = Rs4500/lot) : JK, HBJ

Aug 24th : Market Views - Global Clue +ve, Indian mkt will be inline with peer, expect ~2% upside today.

Buy on dips can be strategy for today. Don't even think of shorts, mkt will continue their rise hence one can wait for Nifty 4560-70 levels to enter. Due to gap-up opening headroom for further upside is low but still trader can make descent gains staying long.

-JK

Friday, August 21, 2009

Aug 21st : Closing Bell - Mkt run-up was sharp due to short covering, it wasn't a fresh buy, hence clear trend will emerge from monday onward only.

May be we were little ahead of time, may be we under estimated the amount of short covering which has pushed the market higher today. Only from Monday onward clear trend will emerge. Hence playing long side in intraday is good but don't carry your positions for next day.

We are expecting some correction in the next week ahead. Request you not to carry any open position for the next day.

-JK

Aug 21st : Mid-Day Call - With the recovery in Shanghai market, India along with European mkt has moved up.

One must not read too much into today's upside, it was just because of short covering. As we have mentioned in the morning post, that traders will take the profit off or close their positions. During last few days lots of shorts were build into the index stocks, hence closing those shorts will definitely take market up by 40-50pts in Nifty.

For intraday on can still play with long positions but for short/medium term better to be with short side of the market. Especially from next week onward on can see selling pressure in global equity.
-JK

Aug 21st : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK

10:16am - Go ahead and short Nifty Fut around 4410-15, SL 4433, TGT#1 4390, TGT#2 4372. Those who are holding short pos in Nifty Fut/Opt shd contd to hold: JK

10:40am - Hang Sang down 1.5%, Nikkei down 2%. Shanghai is falling now with 0.5% down. Hold your short pos tight. Take exposure in Nifty 4300 Put at 35-36.

11:17am - Pls hold on to your Nifty Fut Short Pos. Move SL from 4432 to 4445. We are expecting downward move soon. Also hold Nifty 4300 Put bought at 35-36.

11:30am - Pls exit from Nifty Fut Short at 4445 & also exit from Nifty 4300 Put option with minor loss. Shanghai mkt is moving up hence driving Nifty up for today.

11:38am : Update on Cash Mkt Delivery Based Call: 3i Infotech trading at Rs86, buy call given @82, SL @ 74-75, TGT 95 & 100; holding period 2 weeks. You can hold this pos.

12:13pm - Buy Nifty Fut around 4443, SL 4425, TGT 4465: JK

12:46pm - Nifty Fut TGT 4465 achieved (22pts gain), pls book partial profit, move SL to 4443, look for next TGT 4480 : JK

12:54pm - One can buy Nifty Fut even at 4470-75 level, SL 4455, TGT 4480, 4492, 4505: JK

1:01pm - Nifty Fut TGT 4480 achieved (37pts gain), pls book partial profit, move SL to 4465, look for next TGT 4492, 4505: JK

1:14pm - Nifty Fut TGT 4492 achieved (49pts gain today in Nifty), pls book partial profit, move SL to 4480, look for final TGT 4505: JK

1:20pm - Trailing SL of 4480 in Nifty Fut Long Pos hit, close all your long positions: JK

1:57pm - Short Nifty Fut around 4470-75, SL 4490, TGT 4450, 4438, 4425.

2:20pm - Pls exit Nifty Fut short pos at 4490.

Aug 21st: Morning Call - It's friday & festival during weekend, traders will either close their positions or take their profit off the table.

Asian markets are falling again. As we suggested yesterday itself that one can make a smart gain holding the short positions. Weak Asian market which fell down 1.5-2% today might drag Indian mkt also today. We are in the view that apart from weak global clue, due to weekend & fastival there will be selling pressure in the market which might lead us to 1.5-2% fall today which is Nifty 60-80pts. Also, during this weekend there is drivative expiry in US, from next week onward US markets are expected to slide.

Shanghai is going to open around 10:30am IST, all depends on how Shanghai reacts, we are expecting China market to fall 2-3% which will have cascading effect on global equity. Stay short at this point of time.

-JK

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Aug 20th: Closing Bell - Will this uptrend continue? Are we going to see 4700 or 4300 next?

No one has answer for these questions. We have some data which indicates that market will find difficulties in sustaining these levels, also refer the posting at www.hbjcapital.com. Today's Shanghai market movement of 4.5% was just because Chinese govt has instructed some of their MF to invest in equity which can't be a fundamental & long term reason to cheer up. Who knows tomm we might see Shanghai tanking 3-4%?

What we would suggest is you can take a fresh short in future at every high or best thing is to buy Nifty Put option of Sept series. As far as today's trade was concerned market was in narrow band of 20-30pts in Nifty and it was difficult to make a resonable gain today, we gave two short call both went wrong. But look now the market did fell down from 4480 to 4445.

-JK

Cash Mkt Delivery Based Call : Buy 3i Infotech from midcap IT sector @82, SL@74-75, TGT 95 & 100; holding period 2 weeks.

CMP = Rs82 (5% Up), SL @ 74-75, TGT#1 95, TGT#2 100 [Check Live CMP!!!]
  • This stock trades at a modest valuation despite a blended business model, a favourable geographic-mix and strong deal wins in recent times. The current price of Rs 82 discounts the company’s likely 2009-10 per share earnings by 5.5 times, leaving ample scope for capital appreciation. Earnings of around Rs 18-20, and at around Rs 82 the stock is looking cheap.
  • In the recent June quarter, the revenues grew 27.7 per cent over the June 2008 quarter, to Rs 602 crore while net profits grew 8.3 per cent to Rs 63 crore. A slower growth in net profits may be attributable to the steep increase in interest and depreciation. The company may take up a QIP offering to reduce its debt burden; it has already bought back a significant portion of outstanding FCCBs. Valuations appear modest even after factoring in possible equity dilution.
  • Recent large deal wins span a range of offerings - with orders for anti-money laundering solutions for State Bank of India, banking and treasury products for primary dealers in India and West Asia and domestic e-governance solutions. The company has an order book of Rs 1,450 crore as of June 2009 -about 63 per cent of 2008-09 revenues.
  • 3i Infotech to take the QIP route for Rs 500 cr. The proceeds of the share sale will be utilised to retire its rupee loans of Rs 750 crore.

- JK

Aug 20th: Mid-Day Call - Why we are not able to move up further inspite of Shanghai 4% up & Hang Sang 2.5% up?

Out of these two movements, market can take either one today......
#1. If we continue to move in the same range of Nifty 4460-80 then at the end of the day around 2-3pm you will see short covering which might lead to another 20-30pts upside in Nifty.

#2. If the market falls below 4460, then some selling pressure can be seen, specially those who are sitting on the gap-up gains will sell out because fear of major fall in near term is always there among most of investors/traders.

Now tell me what should a trader do at this point of time?
If you are positional trader stay with short positions or even build fresh shorts from the top. If you are day trader then today is the day for long traders because market doesn't seems to be ready to fall at least for today, hence stay long or stay out of the market for today.
-JK

Aug 20th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Net Profit = NA]

9:40am - Keeping close eyes on Shanghai Mkt (2% up now) will show the direction of Nifty today, hold on to your carry over pos till the mkt stablized around 10:30am.

10:53am - Mkt range bound b/w 4460-80, no trading opportunity till now. Wait for either side breakout. Upside seems to be limited, weakness only below Nifty 4450-60.

11:01am - Fresh short positions in Nifty Fut can be taken around 4460-65, SL 4490, TGT#1 4440, TGT#2 4426. Those holding pos from y'day shd contd to hold: JK

12:20pm - Pls close your Nifty Fut short pos taken at 4460-65, now trading at 4475. Shanghai mkt up 4% and European mkt likely to open 1.5% up hence close the pos & wait.

1:40pm - Sell Nifty Fut around 4460-65, SL 4486, TGT#1 4432, TGT#2 4420. Buy Nifty 4500 Put at 104, SL 95, TGT 125.

2:20pm - Today's mkt is in a range bound mode of +/- 20-25pts up or down. We advice to follow strict SL levels given for Nifty Fut & Opt & wait for clear trend by 3pm.

2:57pm - Cash Mkt Delivery Based Call : Buy 3i Infotech from midcap IT sector @82-83, SL @ 74-75, TGT 95 & 100; holding period 2 weeks. Also refer http://www.stoplosstrade.com/.

3:20pm - Although we are not claiming that our short calls did well today but we re-iterate that mkt will find difficulty in sustaining these levels hence stay short.

Aug 20th: Opening Bell - Keeping close eyes on Shanghai Mkt (2% up now) will show the direction of Nifty today, Asian stocks up ~1% today.

After yesterday's fall in the market, are we going to see a bounce today? If yes, will this bounce going to continue for long? It seems we are in a roller coster ride driven by China market. Impact of China on the global economy is huge, during recent past we have seen the behaviour of Shanghai market followed by global equity.

What should we do now and do you think market is really going to fall again?
Weakness are seen in global equity and anytime we can go for a fall but it is difficult to exactly tell the time when? What I would suggest is buying Nifty Put option of Sept'09 & holding it. At the same time one can trade day to day in long/short positions in Nifty Future based on market mood.
-JK

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Aug 19th : Closing Bell - Shanghai market is seen as lead indicator to global equity market move & it is falling every day, so how long we will hide?

Don't try to ignore the power of Chines economy, although Shanghai market is not open to all and doesn't really is in-sync with global market but off late, it was seen as a lead indicator means what china market will do today we or global market will follow after certain interval of time.

Hence, if you are smart trader who want to catch the big move in market then you must become positional trader for sometime and stay with your short position for next 1 week and see the diff. Money are made in the gap-up or down move, hence looking at the Shanghai now, it would be better to sleep with your short position for couple of days at least.

-JK

Aug 19th : Mid-Day Call - Sudden fall in the Indian Mkt was lead by Shanghai which is down 3.8%. Expect some recovery once European Mkt opens.

It was just a matter of time our market fell down 1.5% and not showing any sign of recovery as of now. Actually, Shanghai market has lead this fall, what happened few days back when Shanghai fell down 5% and we were down 4%. Today Shanghai fell down 3.8% and we are now 1.5% down.

Are we going to see further downside? Shall we go long or sentiments are changing?
Further downside depends on how European market opens up if they are flat to 0.5% down then we are fine, else if they are also 1.5-2% down then we are in for 2.5% correction which is Nifty 100pts. Also Hang Sang market will dictate the next move. As mentioned before look for support at Nifty 4387 which is already broken. A close below this levels means further downside.

-JK

Aug 19th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Net Profit = Rs 3,500/lot (Rs 1,750 in Nifty Fut Short + Rs1,750 in Nifty Fut Short)]

10:35am - Cash Mkt Delivery Call : Buy Provogue India at Rs65, SL 62, TGT#1 72, TGT#2 75. Company buying back share worth Rs50Cr at Rs100/share : JK

10:42am - Short Nifty Fut around 4445-50, SL 4470, TGT#1 4430, TGT#2 4415 : JK

10:45am - We are close to Nifty Fut Short TGT#1 4430, hold your short position & look for TGT#2 4415 : JK

10:49am -
Nifty Fut Short Position TGT#2 4415 already achieved, book complete profit (Rs1750/lot). Although mkt likely to go down 10-15pts more from here: JK

10:57am - Short Nifty Fut again at 4425-30, SL 4456, TGT#1 4405, TGT#2 4390. Mkt likely to fall 1% before noon today. Stay short for intraday gains: JK

11:02am - Nifty Fut Short Position TGT#1 4405, achieved, book partial profit & look for TGT#2 4390. Mkt likely to go down 10-15pts more from here: JK

11:10am -
Nifty Fut Short Position TGT#2 4390 achieved, book complete profit (Rs1750/lot). We don't see more downside from here hence close all short position: JK

12:24pm - Heading for big fall today, history repeating again. Short Nifty Fut around 4360-70 range, No SL needed, TGT 4310 & below. Buy Nifty 4300 Put at 70-75, TGT 90+

1:47pm - Mkt range bound b/w 4340-80. Dow Fut down 82pts, European mkt down ~1%, Shanghai 4.3% down. Slight recovery seen but trend is still down. Stay with short pos.

2:53pm - Short term trend is down, if not today then tomm, expect further fall. Adding fresh short pos in Nifty Fut at 4400 level would help you avg down the cost.

3:09pm -Pls book complete profit in Nifty Fut short pos at 4360-70. Also exit Nifty 4300 Put Opt. ONLY high risk traders can carry over Nifty Fut & 4300 Put to tomm.


3:14pm - Expecting mkt to remain weak for next 2-3 days, hence carrying the short pos will help you to make gap-down gains, risk is there but worth taking such risk.

Aug 19th : Morning Call - Not a good trading day today, mkt might remain flat or move in a range of 20pts up/down.

Global equity is in a confused state, Asian markets are flat to +ve so as Indian markets. This is the market where only way to make money in index trading is buy at every dips like Nifty 4450-55 and sell at Nifty 4470-75 like this. Options are not a viable mode for trade today as the appreciation will be quite low in option due to low volatility and rangebound market.

There are some cash market delivery based calls which can help you earn some gains today. It will be provided during mid-day market around noon.

-JK

We are headed into September, which is historically the worst trading month of the year : Caution Needed.

August may be going out with a bang, but investors are bracing for what could a bad September — knowing that it has a well-deserved reputation for being the worst month of the year. Since 1929, stocks have declined an average 1.2% in September, compared with an average gain of 0.59% during all months of the year.

September is the only month in which market falls more than it rises. Why is September so bad?

Part of the reason is a seasonal slowdown of money flowing into the market, so there’s less new money coming in to push up prices. In additon, some mutual funds have October as fiscal year-end, and may be selling losing positions from mid-September until mid-October.

-JK

Aug 19th (Wed) : Update on Double Circuit Stock Reco - Usher Agro

It seems there are some rumor going on like – “Finance Ministry is trying to abolish 70% import duty on rice”. In such case what would be the impact on Usher Agro?

HBJ Capital's Response : We tried searching a lot on this (likely customs duty cut news) - but couldn't find any such news item announced till now. However, looking at the present situation, this could be a possibility. If it comes true, rice millers especially non-basmati millers may see some weakness.

Looking at Usher Agro specifically, it has been range bound since long. As of now subscribers are sitting on about 9% gain since our report (Buy call given @Rs34). It's hard to assume how much it can fall on this news. We don't think much. If stock does not react much to this news, than some decent gains could be in-waiting in near future.

Our advice to subscribers: "If stock witnesses frenzied fall on any news of duty cut, exiting suggested. More risk takers can wait till first stop loss i.e. 32.3 level."

-Team SLT

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Aug 18th : Closing Bell - Mkt will continue its upward move tomorrow, but it would be wise to close all the long/short position today.


It was a good day at least we were able to recover 1/3 of what was lost on monday. It is better to move slow and steady in the market because slow upward move shows that many market players are taking exposure and hence upside is having strength. Sudden move either side indicates few strong players trying to play around with the market.

Tomorrow again, we can expect 1-2% upside move, one must stay long for positional trade. Intraday traders must close their Nifty Fut & Option positions on daily wise in order to prevent huge loss due to gap up/down openings.

-JK

Aug 18th : Mid-Day Call - Mkt did bounced back as expected, we are almost 2% up now, don't see further more for today.

It was very tough time yesterday when we asked our members to hold on to their long position inspite of market falling like anything. Yesterday, I could see the sad face of all our technical analyst at SLT who felt & realized that it was a big mistake suggesting to remove SL at 4440, but again at that point of time Nifty was already down 140pts hence further down to 190pts was something which we never expected.

So, far so good....back to today, all our Nifty fut & option calls went well and made descent profit for those who has taken position. Now the question is will the market move higher and higher from here? - We don't see this at least for today, a bounce of 2% in Nifty is acceptable but don't get greedy and look for more at least for today. Only by 3pm trend will be clear, short term trend is up now and medium term trend will be up only when Nifty crosses 4730 levels.

-JK

Aug 18th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Net Profit = Rs4,750/lot (Rs3,250 in Nifty Fut & Rs1,500 in Nifty Opt)]

9:42am - Dear All, Nifty might open 0.5% down today but it is expected to bounce back sooner. Pls wait till the first 30min of trade to take any call, don't panic : JK

10:38am - Buy Nifty Fut at 4405, SL 4380, TGT#1 4430, TGT#2 4448. Hold Nifty Fut long pos carried from yesterday. Buy/Hold Nifty 4500 Call at 62-65, SL 50, TGT 80: JK

10:46am - Dow Fut +ve now, European mkt expected to open flat. Asian mkt in recovery mode. India will bounce back & close1-1.5% higher. Stay long, hold Nifty Fut & Opt.

10:53am - Nifty Fut TGT#1 4430 achieved (Profit = Rs1250/lot), pls hold your long pos, look for TGT#2 4448. Hold Nifty Fut taken yesterday & Nifty 4500 Call : JK

11:03am - Nifty 4500 Call Option TGT 80 achieved (Profit = Rs900/lot), move the TGT to 100+. Short covering is going on, expect Nifty to close 60-70pts higher today. Stay long, don't short the mkt: JK

11:25am - Nifty Fut TGT#2 4448 approaching, book complete profit, for high risk traders TGT#3 4470. If you have taken exposure at 4470-4450 yest, look for exit at 4470: JK

11:57am - Nifty Fut TGT#2 4448 achieved (Profit = Rs 2,150/lot), book complete profit. If you have taken exposure at 4470-4450 yest, exit at 4470, strict SL 4425: JK

12:19pm - For all the traders, Pls book complete profit in Nifty Fut TGT#3 achieved at 4470 (Profit = Rs3,250/lot). Book complete profit in Nifty 4500 Call at 90: JK

1:35pm - Pls short Nifty Fut below 4444, SL at 4465, TGT 4410.

1: 44pm - Since the Nifty Fut didn't fell below 4444, hence we expect no has taken any short call on Nifty. Wait for the next call at 2:30pm.

1:51pm - Now Nifty Fut has fallen down below 4444. You can very well go ahead and short Nifty Fut below 4444, SL at 4465, TGT 4410. Don't buy Nifty Put option today.

2:19pm - Pls hold your Nifty fut short position taken at 4,444. Remove the SL which was at 4465. We will let you know the next move: JK

2:35pm - One can take fresh exposure in Nifty Fut short below 4,470 with TGT#1 4440 & TGT#2 4420. Mkt likely to shed some gains before close: JK

3:15pm - TGT revised to 4440-50. Pls book complete profit in Nifty Fut Short Pos around 4440-50 (this is for all who took exposure at 4470 & 4444).

Aug 18th : Morning Call - A trade must wait and watch today for the support level for Sensex @14,700 & Nifty @4,355 to take any call.

Indian market will bounce back even if the global market is flat or doesn't fall too much. Yesterday our market reacted too much due to China factor. Today the Shanghai composite index opened lower but soon turned higher after suffering its biggest single-day drop in nine months on Monday. Fears that China is slowly tightening its easy money policies are haunting investors. The drop in China's market had a domino effect on other markets, spreading nervousness that rallying asset prices have run ahead of economic fundamentals and weak earnings prospects.

A trade must wait and watch today for the support level for Sensex @14,700 & Nifty @4,355 to take any call.

-JK

Based on Elliott Wave Theory DJIA will hit 12000 in "Wave C" hence this will be the most sought after pullback.

Detailed update on LINK

Monday, August 17, 2009

Chinese stock market crashed due to policy shift which lead to global market sell-off. Are we heading for a huge correction?

Read the details posting at LINK

The best approach now would be to keep……
  • Resistance at Sensex 16,005 & Nifty 4,730
  • Support at Sensex 14,700 & Nifty 4,355
  • Current Levels: Sensex 14,784 & Nifty 4,387

In case of we see the above support levels getting broken decisively then we are in for correction of another 8-10% else we will see a rebound if we move past above resistance levels.

-JK, Lead Analyst, www.stoplosstrade.com

U.S. stocks set for weak open as overseas markets slump

Stock-index futures pointed to a sharply weaker start for Wall Street on Monday, with an unexpectedly upbeat reading on manufacturing activity failing to assuage economic worries.

Stock futures lightly pared losses after the New York State manufacturing index climbed to its highest level since November 2007, with the reading proving much better than expected.

Down more than 170 points ahead of the economic report, futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were lately off 160 points at 9,161. Those for the S&P 500 Index fell 18.4 points to 987.4, while Nasdaq 100 futures declined 25.75 points to 1,589.25.

Stocks finished weaker on Friday and for the week, as investors fretted that a near-six-month rally could be overdone in light of the still-shaky economy. Out later Monday , the home builders' index for August is due for release at 1 p.m. Eastern.

Meanwhile in Asia, the Shanghai Composite sank 5.8% to 2,830.63, closing below the 3,000 level for the first time since the end of June -- and marking the worst fall since November. Falling commodity prices and concerns over liquidity tightening measures by the government were blamed for the fall, with metal stocks hardest hit. The Hang Seng Index lost 3.5% in Hong Kong.

- Team SLT

Aug 17th : Closing Bell - No support for Indian market, poor global clue lead to almost 4% fall in Nifty which seems to be over done.

Very few trading days are like this where we get a chance to see the market fall of 150+ pts in Nifty, one must remember the more we fall the faster we bounce back. Looking at the reason why market fell down is of no use now. But the intensity of fall clearly indicate that we might bounce back in no time.

Today our call went very bad, we have given a long call when Nifty was already down 100-120 but we never expeted market to fall 180-200pts in Nifty. Moreover removal of the SL has multiplied the impact hence leading to loss for our client in today's trade. We have given hold call on all the positions expecting a bounce back tomorrow.

-JK

Aug 17th : Mid-Day Call - Impact of China & lower opening of European market added to the downside.

How much more are we going to fall, after already 3% down?

The downside from here is very minimal, we are expecting 30-50pts bounce back from here at least for intraday. Mkt sentiments has changed to down in short term all because we are dictated by global equity hence even if there is something +ve in Indian mkt we are in for small correction or say profit booking because China is weak, because US is down so and so. It would be better to play intraday for at least few days and ensure that you have all positions closed by end of the day everyday.

-JK

Shanghai down 5%, now all depends on how European Mkt Opens Up?

European equities were seen mixedon Monday following the previous session's retreat and as Asian stocks tumbledafter poor U.S. economic data dented recent recovery hopes for the globaleconomy.

On the macro front on Monday, data showed Japan's economy returned to growthin the second quarter, ending its longest recession since World War Two, but analysts warned of a rocky road ahead as the nascent recovery was based onshort-term stimulus efforts around the world.

Shanghai stocks extended last week's selloff to drop to a seven-week low on Monday on worries this year's rally had got ahead of the economic recovery, with concern about new equity supplies also weighing on sentiment.

-Team SLT

Aug 17th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Net Profit = NA]

10:40am: Buy Nifty Fut around 4460-70, SL 4440, TGT#1 4495, TGT#2 4520. Buy Nifty 4500 Call Opt around 80-85, SL 70, TGT 110 (intraday): JK, HBJ Cap

11:44am - Downside for today is limited, further fall in the mkt was due to Shanghai which is down 5%. European mkt opening around 12:30pm, one can expect bounce back.


12: 10am - Although mkt is moving down, it is better to wait till the opening of European Mkt. Contd to hold your Nifty Fut Long Pos. As of now remove the SL of 4440: JK

1:04pm - One can buy Nifty Fut at 4450 with TGT of 4475+. We might see 30-50pts bounce back from here. Buy Nifty 4500 Calls at 84 with TGT 100+.

2:30pm - Pls carry for tomm, your Nifty Fut long pos taken at 4460-70 & 4450 levels. Hold your Nifty 4500 Call option exposure taken at 80-85. Today's fall was overdone.

3:05pm - Accumulate Nifty 4500 Call around 60 levels. Mkt fall was much more than expected, bounce back possible tomm. Nifty fut pos (in loss now) can be held for tomm.

Aug 17th : Morning Call - Weak global clues lead to selling pressure in India markets. Gap-down of 2% leave less room for intraday traders.

In this weak global sentiments, more than US it is Asian market which are reacting. China is developing cracks and there is medium term bubble seen in China market. Over all sentiments is poor with asian market falling 2-2.5%, we are also in line with them. Biggest worry is we already fell down due to various issues like monsoon & H1N1 etc and inspite of this if we fall in-line with our peers then one might see a sharp rebound what was seen couple of days back when Nifty moved 140 odd points.

Today's trading strategies:-
#1. Wait for Nifty to bounce back to the levels of 4520-30 then take a fresh short positions.
#2. Wait for European market to open, we are expecting them to open flat to -ve, in such cases there is a chance of bounce back, hence if Nifty falls down to say 4450-60 levels, then take a long position in Nifty for intraday gains only.

-JK

Double Circuit stock follow-up update on Ponni Sugars & Usher Agro.

#1. Ponni Sugars: We still think some upward movement remaining in the stock. If stock hits another lower circuit, exit fully. Else remain invested.

#2. Usher Agro: Upward movement will be gradual with little volatility, not necessarily in upper circuit. Remain invested till any major news relating to bulk import. June year end for the company may hold the price for some time.

-Team SLT

Friday, August 14, 2009

Aug 14th: Closing Bell - It was a volatile mkt with no clear trend, fight is going on between bulls & bear. May see some consolidation b/w 4550-4600.

Today was not a very good trading day, we expected market to fall in the 1st half and by 12 noon what we felt that we are wrong because mkt was not endorsing our views, as soon as we changed the tone, mkt fell down 40-50 odd points in Nifty, this is called market dynamics. Exact time was something which we could not figure out, although we were able to spot the trend for 1st half.

Now after lot of zig-zag movement, what is stored for next week?
At SLT, we see a consolidation in the first few days of next week, after that there will be one direction only and we expect it to be upward. Although we strictly don't reco any one to carry long position for next week in future as well as options. Hence, stay positive for next week but play intraday only.

-JK

Aug 14th : Mid-Day Call - Mkt unlikely to fall today as expected, it is expected to move higher and close Nifty 20-40pts up.

After massive gain yesterday, market is not willing to shed, we were expecting a down move in the 1st half of the market and further bounce back in the 2nd half. But looking at the strength shown by the market in the 1st half....we decided to change the position from Nifty short to Nifty long in order to stay intact with the trend which is up in short term.

Hence, a trader must stay long now. Also one can accumulate Nifty 4500 call options. As we expected by next week we might see Nifty 4700 levels again, hence playing in the long side is better than going ahead with short.

-JK

Aug 14th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Net Profit = Rs2,750/lot (i.e, Rs 1,750 in Nifty Fut & Rs1,000 in Nifty Opt)]

10:31am : Short Nifty Fut around 4585-90, SL 4612, TGT#1 4560, TGT#2 4542. Buy Nifty 4500 Call only below Rs150-152. Mkt will fall first then bounce back today: JK

11:04am: Cash Mkt Calls: Ponni Sugar buy given at 82, after hitting 100 it is down to 93; Hold with SL at 90. Usher Agro buy given at 34, now 37.70; Hold with SL at 36.

11: 05am: Just hold your Nifty Fut Pos, remove the SL, we will let you know what next? Mkt bounce now is temporary, hold your pos.

11:56am: Mkt unlikely to fall now. Exit from Nifty Fut short pos at 4600 with minor loss. Buy Nifty Fut around 4600-4590, SL 4572, TGT#1 4625, TGT#2 4645 : JK

12:19pm: Don't panic with the sharp fall, mkt will bounce back. Go long even at Nifty 4580 levels. Buy Nifty 4500 Call at 165. Mkt likely to rebound & close 20-40pts up

12:25pm - Pls remove your SL, Stay long in Nifty Future Long Call. Buy Nifty 4500 Call options below 150.

12:37pm: Don't panic, mkt will bounce back. Go long even at Nifty 4565. Buy Nifty 4500 Call option at 150. Don't read too much into the sharp fall in the mkt. Stay long

1:19pm : Pls stay with your long pos in Nifty Fut (exposure taken at various entry prices 4565, 4585 & 4590) with TGT#1 4625 & TGT#2 4645. Hold Nifty 4500 Call also: JK

1:39pm: Those taken exposure in Nifty Fut at 4565 shd book partial profit at 4605 & look for next TGT of 4625 & 4645. Trend is up hence contd holding Nifty Call Option.

2:02pm: Pls don't panic, mkt fall is temporary. One can even enter at Nifty Fut long pos around 4565-70 with TGT 4600. Mkt will bounce back & close 20-40pts up today.

2:56pm: As we mentioned earlier, mkt did bounced back. Look for revised Nifty Future TGT#1 as 4600, TGT#2 as 4615. Book complete profit in Nifty 4500 Call at 170: JK

3:20pm: Pls close your Nifty Fut Long Pos around 4580-90. Close your Nifty 4500 Call Opt around 155-160. Don't carry any pos for next week: JK

Aug 14th: Morning Call - Mkt likely to shed some gains today, don't expect much damage but good opportunity today to make money in short - long both.


No doubt the trend is up, at the same time yesterday's gain in Nifty was also much higher than what we all though about. A gain of 140+ points in day will definitely lead to some selling from weak hand next day itself, which will happen now...we will see Nifty falling 50-60pts and by the time European market opens we will show bounce back and closing almost flat to +ve.

What should we do with Nifty Call option which we are carrying partly from yesterday?

Avg down, Nifty 4500 Call below price range of Rs150, why avg down is because we see upward move to continue next week too unless there is some bad news pops up. Today Nifty Fut traders can make money in going short 1st then taking long pos after that.

-JK

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Aug 13th : Closing Bell - Upward momuntum to continue tomorrow, book complete profit in nifty fut & stay with nifty option long positions.

This is called market, no one in this world including me will be able to predict it well, after all we all are immortals. So, what we can do as per Jesses Livermore is - Never "Predict" or "Anticipate" the market, try to "REACT" to what the market is telling by its behaviour.

So, now you will ask me what the market is telling us?
To be very frank, when we started the fall 3-4 days back, I told that market is looking for an excuse to shed the extra fat it has gained in short time, hence monsoon or global equity was few reasons to count on....but after all human nature always try to over do anything. So, we over sold and fell down from 4700 to 4400 levels in no time. Later on we realized the valuation gap between us & our peer (read Hang Sang), which lead to catch-up rally which is expected to continue for tomorrow also.

-JK

Aug 13th : Mid- Day Call - Till yesterday it was bear who were running the show but now remote control is in the hand of bulls. Stay long!!!

Market bounce back on Wed, it did not fell in last 30min on Wed, these are some indication that sell-off in the market during last 3-4 days were more than expected and there is some global support on the way to rescue these falls.

Today also, we were expecting market to come down to the levels of Nifty 4520 so that we can initiate long positions, but strength in the market seems to be clearly visible, hence we decided to ride the bull from Nifty 4550 onward rather than waiting for its fall.

-JK

Aug 13th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated by JK [Net Profit = Rs 4,750/lot [i.e, Rs2500/lot in Nifty Fut + Rs 2250/lot in Nifty 4500 Call Opt]

10:44am - You must Buy Usher Agro @34-36.60; SL @ 32.30; TGT#1 39.1; TGT#2 46.10; TGT#3 55.80. Buy Nifty 4500 Call avg b/w 120-140 with TGT 200+ in 2 days (no SL): JK

11:13am - Buy/Avg. down Nifty Fut at various price points starting from 4550 to 4520, Keep SL at 4495, TGT#1 4570, TGT#2 4585. Uptrend will continue: JK, HBJ Capital

12:17pm - Nifty Fut TGT#1 4570 achieved (Profit = Rs1000/lot), pls hold your long pos, look for TGT#2 4585. Hold Nifty 4500 Call, buy given at 140 trading at Rs164: JK

12:44pm - Pls buy Nifty Fut only at these entry price points 4550, 4540, 4530 & 4520. We have to keep the avg price down. After a small dip mkt will bounce : JK, HBJ Cap

1:52pm - Accumulate Nifty Future at 4550, 4540, 4530 entry prices. Don't worry mkt will bounce back. Also avg down Nifty 4500 Call below Rs150 : JK

2:17pm - Nifty Fut TGT#2 4585 achieved (Profit = Rs1750/lot), book partial profit, look for TGT#3 4600. Book partial profit in Nifty 4500 Call above 175: JK, HBJ Capital

2: 45pm - Nifty Fut TGT#3 4600 achieved (Profit = Rs2500/lot), book complete profit now. Book partial profit in Nifty 4500 Call above 185 & hold the remaining for tomm.

2:55pm - Total Profit for the day is Rs 4,750/lot (i.e, Rs2500/lot in Nifty Fut + Rs 2250/lot in Nifty 4500 Call Opt) & profitable cash call - Usher Agro (8% up today).

Aug 13th: Morning Call - Gap-Up opening in the market will sustain and looks like trend has changed overnight.

"At this point it is difficult to say, because a small +ve trigger in global market might lead to upside of 100-120 points in Nifty in a day. Will the trigger comes? Possible, because US markets has pattern of falling for a day and bouncing back another, so if DOW moves 2% upside, we are in for short covering, hence better to be with no open positions at this point of time." - This was the statment made by me yesterday. With small support from global equity we are now 2% up in early trade.

Will this upside move sustainable from here?
Yes, in first look it seems we might be in for V shape recovery, but only by end of the day things will become clear. Still we advice all of our members to stay long only.

-JK

“Double Circuit”: Short term cash market delivery calls for Aug'09 - Usher Agro Limited


If you have missed out our 1st Double Circuit Stock Reco on Aug 10th which gave 15% return in just 3 days; then don’t worry, here is a chance to grab the 2nd Double Circuit Stock Reco which has 30-60% upside, hurry up!!!

Usher Agro Limited [Live Quote]- One of the leading rice milling and agro processing company in India.

Double Circuit Cash Market Delivery Based Call: Buy Usher Agro @ Rs34; SL @ 32.30; TGT#1 39.1; TGT#2 46.10; TGT#3 55.80. Expect 30-60% returns in 3 weeks.

- JK

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Aug 12th : Closing Bell - Get ready for last 30min swing in the market, expect downward move.

If you look at the last few days pattern in the market, every day during last hour, market use to fall, today also after run-up it is likely to fall. But what is this, while typing this post, what I realized that today it is not going to fall. This way our only call after sms failure issue went wrong.

What would be the next move in the market?
At this point it is difficult to say, because a small +ve trigger in global market might lead to upside of 100-120 points in Nifty in a day. Will the trigger comes? Possible, because US markets has pattern of falling for a day and bouncing back another, so if DOW moves 2% upside, we are in for short covering, hence better to be with no open positions at this point of time.

-JK

Aug 12th : Mid-Day Call - Mkt fell down as expected, don't see further downside below Nifty 4350 for today.

Dear All,
We are extremly sorry for the sms delivery issue which popped up today, it was found that our sms service provide has some server failure issue which they are working on it. Hence, inspite of providing good trading calls today only few of our client really benefitted from it. Hence forth, we will take care of such issues.

Coming back to market update, yes we did fell down 2% as expected but further downside for today is not likely, there might be small 20-30pts shortcovering or pullback before we close the day. Nifty short calls which we gave has already made descent profit from 4440 to 4375. Book complete profit above 100 in Nifty 4300 Put Option.

-JK

Aug 12th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated @ SLT by JK [Net Profit = Rs3,250 - Rs 1,500 = Rs 1,750/lot]

Aug 12th - 10:17am: Book partial profit in PONNI SUGARS, call given on monday @82, now 5% UC @90.80, Keep SL @ 86.50, TGT#1 95, TGT#2 104. Hold Nifty 4300 Put Option: JK

Aug 12th - 10:33am: Sell Nifty Future around 4435-40, SL @ 4462, TGT#1 4415, TGT#2 4388. Buy/Hold Nifty 4300 Put Option @80-82, SL @ 65, TGT 100+ : JK, HBJ Cap

Aug 12th - 10:46am: We are heading toward Nifty TGT#1 4415, pls move the TGT#1 to 4405 & TGT#2 4388. Book partial profit at TGT#1 & move SL to 4435: JK, HBJ Cap

Aug 12th - 11:01am: Nifty TGT#1 4405 achieved (profit= Rs1750/lot) book partial profit, look for TGT#2 4388, move SL @ 4435. Hold Nifty 4300 Put Option trading @90: JK

Aug 12th - 11:10am: We are heading toward Nifty TGT#2 4388, pls move the TGT#2 to 4375 & Keep SL @ 4415. Book partial profit in Nifty 4300 Put Option above 100: JK

Aug 12th - 11:18am: Pls maintain Nifty Future TGT#2 4375 & SL @4415. We are in for 2% down side today. Book partial profit in Nifty 4300 Put Opt above 100: JK

Dear All, It seems many of you are not receiving the sms alert today, pls check www.stoplosstrade.com for live update or add hbjcapital@yahoo.co.in

Aug 12th - 11:51am: Nifty TGT#2 4375 achieved (profit= Rs3250/lot) book complete profit. Book partial profit in Nifty 4300 Put Opt above 100: JK

Aug 12th - 2:36pm : Short Nifty Future around 4420-25, SL @ 4448, TGT#1 4400, TGT#2 4385. Book partial profit in Nifty 4300 Put Option above 90. Mkt likely to close around 4400: JK

Aug 12th - 2:40pm : Pls hold Nifty Short Pos, we will let you know when to exit.

Aug 12th - 3:17pm : Pls exit Nifty Short Pos @ 4455, it seems at least for today downside is not in place. This call did not do well. Also book complete profit from Nifty 4300 Put

Aug 12th : Morning Call - Indian mkt likely to shed ~1.5-2% today; Stay in short position, we are heading for Nifty 4200-4300 levels.

Yesterday, markets snapped their three-day losing streak. The indices managed to shrug off a weak start but remained volatile through out the session. The markets survived a late sell-off and the Nifty shut shop at 4,471, up 34 points, while the Sensex ended at 15,074 up 65 points. Auto, realty, and metals were the star sectors clocking gains of up to 3%. The pullback was on muted volumes with the total turnover hovering around the Rs 85,000 crore.

Monsoon Impact:
2% output reduction in agriculture, actually impacts our GDP by only 1%. Given the fiscal stimulus policies and the policy measures that have been announced, which are largely geared towards the rural sector, we believe that should really offset the negative impact of monsoons.


Sector Watch:
Get into irrigation companies, which are into manufacturing of PVC pipes because only 30-35% of the total cultivable land in the country is irrigated. Looking at what has happened this year, a number of initiatives would go towards irrigating the farm fields in a very aggressive manner over the next few months and years.


One can go for Finolex Industries from the irrigation pack. Finolex Industries is quoting just about 5 times compared to Jain Irrigation which is quoting about 20 times. This company has also got a subsidiary joint venture with an Israeli company which is significant player in the drip irrigation and the micro irrigation business.

Coming back to today's market update:-
Dow Jones down 1%, Shanghai & Hang Sang 2.5% down. Asian markets are over all weak, Indian market resume their downward move. One can continue holding Nifty 4300 Put and exit only above 100-120 levels. Going short in Nifty future will be the best way to make gains today!!!

-JK

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Aug 11th : Closing Bell - Mkt has weakness, it was not able to retain its gain today. Expect flat or -ve sentiments to continue in near term.


What was the reason for sharp fall in the market? I don't know but one thing I know is we were very much -ve from the morning and look at the three postings, all talked about market falling in the 2nd half. But when Nifty started crossing 4500 levels, we had a doubt on our views, after all we need to follow the trend not the other way round. At that point of time we did gave a long calls so that our members need not miss the trend but finally mkt has endorsed our views by falling down to 4440 levels which was our target for Nifty short call.

Anyway, what would be the next move for tomorrow?

It seems we will continue to see selling pressure as long as global sentiments are not improving. One MUST be in short side to play this market at this point of time.

-JK

Aug 11th : Mid-Day Call - Anyone out there, who is ready to go for long inspite of local & global worries?

Today's recovery in the market to the extent of 50-55pts in Nifty is mainly due to short covering, we don't think anyone (I mean except few) will be willing to go long at this point of time where trend is more downward than up. I don't know why market is taking so much of consolidation time, it should make a move by now. We are not with a view that again mkt will fall 80-100pts in Nifty but yes, we do see flat to -ve close which will lead to further weakness in the market.

Only was we have to play now is to wait & watch the move till a clear intraday breakout emerges.

-JK

Aug 11th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated @ SLT by JK [Net Profit = (- Rs1500 + Rs1250 + Rs1600) = Rs1350/lot]

Aug 11th - 10:39am: Yesterday we gave cash mkt call on PONNI SUGARS - Buy was given @82, now it is in 5% UC @86.50, Keep SL @ 82, TGT#1 92, TGT#2 104. Holding 5 days: JK

Aug 11th - 10:57am: Sell Nifty Future around 4465-70, SL @ 4492, TGT#1 4443, TGT#2 4426. Hold Nifty 4300 Put Option. Mkt will continue to face selling pressure: JK, HBJ Cap

Aug 11th - 11:42am: Mkt under consolidation in the range of 4470-80 before moving either way, likely downward. Hold Nifty future short pos & Nifty 4300 Put Option: JK, HBJ

Aug 11th - 12:02pm:
Nifty Future SL @ 4492 hit, we are still expecting mkt to come down. If possible remove the SL, we will let you know what next to do: JK

Aug 11th - 12:33pm: Fresh exposure in Nifty Future Short Position can be taken at 4485-90 levels, keep SL @ 4512, TGT remains same as the previous call given: JK, HBJ Cap

Aug 11th - 1:27pm: Mkt not showing clear down move. Close your Nifty Fut Short Pos @4490-95 range & take Nifty Fut Long Pos @4490-95, SL @ 4472, TGT#1 4515, TGT#2 4532: JK

Aug 11th - 1:29pm: Hold Nifty 4300 Put Option, further buy can be initiated before market close today. Short term trend is -ve, hence hold put option for now: JK, HBJ

Aug 11th - 2:13pm:
Nifty TGT#1 4515 already achieved (profit = Rs1250/lot), continue to hold long position, expect further short covering today. Look for TGT#2 4532: JK

Aug 11th - 2:26pm: Pls exit from Nifty long pos @ SL 4472. Sudden selling pressure seen in the mkt.
High risk traders can go ahead and Short Nifty below 4475, SL @ 4495, TGT 4440.

Aug 11th - 2:40pm: Pls go ahead and Short Nifty Fut below 4475, SL @ 4495, TGT#1 4440, TGT#2 4425. Buy Nifty 4300 Put Option @65-67 & hold it for tomm with TGT 90-100+ : JK

Aug 11th - 2:46pm:
Nifty TGT 4440 achieved (profit = Rs1600/lot), book partial profit. Look for next TGT 4420. As we said earlier, short term trend is down : JK

Aug 11th - 2:50pm: Mkt likely to shed another 20-30pts or more in Nifty today, stay short in Nifty fut & hold Nifty 4300 Put options. Nifty TGT#2 is 4420 & TGT#3 4400: JK


Aug 11th - 3:20pm: Pls contd to hold Nifty 4300 Call & Cash Call on Ponni Sugar. You must have had descent profit in Nifty short call. Don't carry any Nifty Fut pos: JK

Try talking to the TAPE, the CHART - They will tell you want will be the next move.....

Let me explain you how to really decode the chart pattern based on human behaviour:-
>>>(@9:55am) During last 3 days mkt fell down like anything, no one has really expected that we will continue the fall on Monday also. What happened during last 1hrs on Monday is missed by most of the short sellers. What I mean is, the sudden fall in the market on Monday was enough to create a panic among bulls and it was an opportunity missed for bears, because everything happened on short interval of time.

>>>(@10:30am) Now today during early trade, those who missed shorting Nifty, jumped into the market which lead to fall, but there are some traders who shorted already on Monday found this as an opportunity to exit hence there was sharp recovery from lows which took Nifty from 4400 to 4480 levels.

>>>(@11am) Now, at 4480 levels what we can see is some type fresh shorts are building up, this is visible from the Aug future which is at 3pts discount to spot. It means bear are trying to pull down the market and the recovery during 1st hour of trade was not due to bulls but due to profit booking by bears who shorted the market. In true sense, bulls are sleeping now, bears are taking control of the market.

What will happen next? - Mkt will fall today also, because bears are at the driver seat and they are the one who are running the show!!!

-JK

Aug 11th : Morning Call - Do you see any bounce back or recovery today? I don't. Just short this mkt from the higher levels.

Weak global clues, flat asian market and selling pressure in Indian market during last 3 days will continue. Why? Don't you think that after 3 days of sharp fall we are in for a bounce or relief rally? I don't think so because for any type of rally or upside on need support either technical or news based or global sentiments. Also one must not forget that there are so many IPOs in pipeline for which investors will be taking out money from secondary market.

What should be the trading strategies for today?

Wait for Nifty levels of 4450 & above and create a fresh short from higher levels, we are expecting Nifty to close around 4400 levels or below. One can stay invested in Nifty 4300 Put option because soon there will be lots of buyers in this.

-JK

Monday, August 10, 2009

Aug 10th : Closing Bell - It's matter of just few days we will see 4200-4300 levels in Nifty, global clues not encouraging, monsoon will impact.

As we have mentioned in our earlier post that, the trend is downward and if anyone want to play in this market, one need to be on the short side of the market. Our call today to short the market went well and our trading members must have made descent gains.

It was difficult trade in the first half when the trend was up & down and not very clear move was seen, although we were very much convinced that mkt will take a dip but occassional bounce back was leading to change the -ve tone.

Continue to hold Nifty 4300 Put Option, we are heading towards 4200 levels in a matter of few days only.

-JK

Aug 10th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated @ SLT by JK [Net Profit = Rs1100 + 1650 = Rs2750/lot]

Aug 10th - 10:26am: Cash Mkt delivery call : Buy PONNI SUGARS (ERODE) @Rs82, SL @ 75, TGT#1 92, TGT#2 104. Holding 5 days. Ref www.stoplosstrade.com for more details: JK
Aug 10th - 10:46am: Short Nifty Future around 4460-62, SL@ 4480, TGT#1 4440, TGT#2 4422. Buy Nifty 4300 Put @80-82, SL @ 68, TGT 100+ :JK, HBJ Capital
Aug 10th - 11:18am: Nifty TGT#1 4440 achieved (Profit =Rs1100/lot) book partial profit, move SL to 4462. Mkt likely to fall further, hold short pos in both fut/opt: JK
Aug 10th - 11:27am: Clear downward trend seen now, keep Nifty TGT#2 4422 & TGT#3 4405. Move SL to 4462. Mkt likely to fall further, hold Nifty Put Option also: JK
Aug 10th - 11:40am: Trading Gyan: #1. Real money made in commitments in a stock showing a profit right from the start. #2. Patience is the key to success NOT speed : Jess Livermore
Aug 10th - 11:46am: Pls stay with your Nifty future short positions move SL to 4475-80. Mkt bounce is not not likely to sustain: JK
Aug 10th - 12:26pm: European mkt expected to open in -ve, we are still -ve on Nifty, holding short position will be better. Small jurk is only due to European mkt opening: JK
Aug 10th - 12:30pm: Pls hold your Nifty future short positions, we will intimate when to exit. - JK
Aug 10th - 12:45pm: Pls exit from your Nifty short pos@ 4480, mkt seems to be in recovery mood. Buy Nifty future @4480-85, SL @ 4462, TGT#1 4500, TGT#2 4517. Hold Nifty Put option.
Aug 10th - 12:50pm: Nifty Future TGT#1 4500 achieved, mkt might move further (short term, intraday). Look for TGT#2 4517 & Keep TGT#3 4530. Stay long for intraday: JK
Aug 10th - 1:36pm : Pls exit Nifty Fut long Pos @4480-85. We might see 1% fall in the mkt today. Sell Nifty @4480-85, SL @ 4510, TGT#1 4465, TGT#2 4447. Hold Nifty 4300 Put.
Aug 10th - 1:41pm : Nifty future TGT#1 4465 achieved (profit = Rs750/lot), mkt likely to fall further hence hold your short pos. Look for TGT#2 4447: JK, HBJ Capital

Aug 10th - 2:58pm : Nifty future TGT#2 4447 achieved (profit = Rs1650/lot), book complete profit. Mkt likely to fall further, only high risk traders shd hold: JK
Aug 10th - 3:04pm : Today's profit in Nifty Fut (Rs1100 + 1650 = Rs2750/lot). Pls hold Nifty 4300 Put, also take delivery of PONNI SUGARS (ERODE) in cash mkt: JK, HBJ Cap

Aug 10th : Mid-Day Call - Mkt were looking for a reason to fall & monsoon or weak china mkt are few excuses.

No doubt market trend is down, there might be some short covering which will create an impression (intraday) that we are bouncing back but the fact is market has developed weakness and sooner or later we are going to see sharp slide which we have already seen in last 2-3 days.

One can go long for intraday but for short term it is better to stay short.

-JK

Aug 10th : Morning Call - Mkt not showing strength inspite of good global clue, are we in for further fall?


After close of US mkt in +ve last friday, we started in +ve zone looking around asian market which were +ve. But soon we lost all the gains in no time. It is very clear that market is showing a sign of weakness, hence one must be ready to accept that going short is the only way to make money.

Now the question is how much more downside market has?

No one knows this, but I would go ahead with the trend which has turned -ve specially after seeing today's move in the market. We are not able to stand, look at Hang Sang which is 2% up but we are in -ve. Decline is higher than advance. Most of the people are bearish, although the fear of fall in the market was there from a while but now only it looks like confirmed.

-JK

“Double Circuit”: Short term cash market delivery calls for Aug'09 - PONNI SUGARS (ERODE)

PONNI SUGARS (ERODE): Our pick for the month of August 2009 [Reco dated Aug 10th - Monday]
Chennai based Ponni Sugars (Erode) is one of the most efficiently managed sugar and allied products manufacturing company in India.
Overview:-
  • For last four years, overall stable revenues (about Rs 140 Crore), while other sugar companies have demonstrated volatile revenues
  • Net income grew from Rs 1.8 Crore to Rs 12.2 Crore.
  • Better operating efficiency as seen in the reduction in the cost of goods sold as percentage of sales from 96.12% to 62.46%
  • Going forward, as realizations from better sugar price improves, so does the net income.
  • Integrated operations with efficient management
  • One of the few dividend paying company (3.19% dividend yield at CMP) in sugar space,
  • Available at compelling valuation, P/E of only 3.8.
  • Since February 2009, the share price has rose from Rs 30 to Rs 79, an appreciation of 166%, while since last month it has gained about 40%.
  • We feel the momentum to remain in near to medium term. The CMP of 79 is close to its 52 week high of Rs 81. A rise from current level will result in break out, which could provide fresh impetus to take it to higher levels.
  • Valuations of bigger players in the sugar space, especially from northern and western India have stretched a lot in recent times
Basic data, entry, SL & exit prices:-
  • CMP = Rs79
  • Entry Price = Rs79
  • Stop Loss = Rs75.05
  • TGT#1 Rs86; TGT#2 Rs92; TGT#3 Rs104
  • Holding Period = 5-7 trading days.
In case of gradual or marginal rise and fall in the share price, investors can prolong the differential target periods. Investors can also hold beyond the final target, if price continues to move ahead and should place higher trailing stop losses.
- Team SLT

US non-farm payroll data lifted investor optimism on Friday. Expect a positive move in Indian Market on Monday.

Last Friday, US payroll data came better than expected which lead to +ve move in US market, we are expecting a gap-up opening in India market too on Monday. If Asian markets & European market provide good support means if they are up 2% or more then you might see a sharp short covering in India Stock Market during last 1-2 hrs just before closing. Link

- Team SLT

Friday, August 7, 2009

Aug 7th : Closing Bell - Weakness continued, recovery not seen today, don't carry any open positions.

Volatility in the market continued, after number of attempts to bounce back finally market fell down and remain at the lower levels. Unfortunately most of the trading calls went wrong today, hence we are suggesting our trading community not to carry any position for next trading days.

US payroll data might change the sentiments, effect of which will be seen on Monday, but on the safer side it is better to be with no position as of now. Just stay away and watch the movement for a day or two before taking any position. Things will be clearer by Monday.

-JK

Aug 7th : Mid-Day Call - Mkt may not recover today. Investors braced for key U.S.monthly jobs data.

Indian market fell down more compare to its peer. Looking at the European market which are down 0.5% it seems there will be some recovery in Indian market expected in 2nd half of the day but it may not happen as weakness is developed in the market. Investors braced for key U.S.monthly jobs data, seeking insight on the outlook for the world's biggest economy.

Stay away from the market for time being. Our Nifty long call did not worked well today!!!

-JK

Aug 7th: Morning Call - Something is changing in the market, it can be sentiments or global mood or may be we are in for short term correction

Till yesterday morning we all were riding the bull thinking that market will reach so and so levels but all of a sudden what happened on the last hour of trade has changed many thoughts and only today when we saw the global market feeling the pinch, we realized that something wrong, somewhere.

Now the question is are we in for correction? Shall we go ahead and short this market?
As far as shorting this market is concerned, yes one MUST go ahead and short, it might be little early for taking short positions but one must not forget that the early entrants makes the good money. All Livermore use to say that, when market is fall, it "IS" falling and one need not look around a reason for why it is falling. Are we in for correction will be clear only if our market falls 2-3% down today. We are anticipating a fall of 1.5% or more today also.

-JK

Aug 7th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated @ SLT by JK [Net Loss = (Rs750 - Rs1000 - Rs1000) = Rs1250/lot]

Aug 7th - 9:45am: Hold Nifty Future (positional call given yesterday) bought @4565-70 & Nifty 4700 Call bought @ 105. Remove SL for sometime in early trade: JK, HBJ Cap

Aug 7th - 10:10am: Pls exit Nifty Future @4575 & Nifty 4700 Call @100 (No Profit/Loss). Mkt seems to be in correction mood, close all cash mkt & stock option long pos: JK

Aug 7th - 11:04am: Buy Nifty Future around 4535-36, SL @4518, TGT#1 4550, TGT#2 4567. The bounce back in the market is temporary, trend is downward only: JK, HBJ Cap

Aug 7th - 11:20am:
Nifty Fut TGT#1 4550 achieved (Profit=Rs750/lot) book partial profit. Expect further up move, look for TGT#2 4567 :JK, HBJ Cap

Aug 7th - 12:27am:
Nifty close to SL trigger level of 4518, pls exit, close your Nifty long [correction] position: JK, HBJ Capital

Aug 7th - 12:51pm: Buy Nifty Fut around 4515-20, SL @ 4495, TGT#1 4542, TGT#2 4560. Mkt likely to bounce back & expected to close ~1% down today: JK, HBJ Cap


Aug 7th - 1:05pm: SL triggered for Nifty Future long call @ 4495, pls exit. Mkt not showing strength hence recovery unlikely: JK, HBJ Cap

Aug 7th - 1:50pm: Buy Nifty Future around 4520-25, SL @ 4495, TGT#1 4542, TGT#2 4560. Some upside seen from here, mkt to close ~1% down today: JK, HBJ Cap

Aug 7th - 2:16pm: Not a good trading day, our calls went wrong 1st time during last 3 weeks. Overall market sentiments remains poor. Don't hold any position for now: JK

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Aug 6th : Closing Bell : Don't panic, this is best time to take exposure in Nifty long positions. Don't read too much into market fall.


What happened in the last 1 hr of trade, no one want to see again....market started falling with almost no reason (may be I don't know the reason). European market were doing well, Hang Sang bounced back from -ve but we fell down after good recovery.

The question is not why we fell or what was the reason, but the real question is, are we in trend reversal point?

I would say no, this is not a trend reversal sign, the reason for the run-up after budget fall was global liquidity and good sentiments, hence there should be some global pressure before the trend changes. What happened today is just couple of fund selling and exiting, nothing much. One must not read too much into these falls but build a long position for good gap-up opening gains tomorrow.

-JK

Aug 6th : Mid-Day Call - Enough consolidation @4650-4700 levels, its time to move up. Looks like today again we will see close above 4700 levels.

After 40-50pts fall in Nifty, we are now in consolidation (this word, I hate typing, yaar life should move) phase. Actually there is tough fight going on between those who are booking profit and those who are taking fresh positions, that is why markets are in a narrow range.

Just after the opening of European market which is expected to open in +ve, one can see Nifty moving up further and we are expecting a stable close around 4710-4720 levels for today. Advance/decline numbers are mixed, Nifty Aug series is in premium & discount occassionally, but over all sentiments are +ve hence stay with long positions.

-JK

Aug 6th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated @ SLT by JK [Profit = Rs 2650 + Rs 2200 = Rs 4850/lot]

Aug 6th - 10:48am: Buy Nifty Future around 4670-4675, SL@ 4652, TGT#1 4692, TGT#2 4705, TGT#3 4723. Mkt likely to bounce back from today's low, stay long: JK, HBJ Capital

Aug 6th - 11:52am :Hold on to your Nifty Fut long pos with TGT#1 4691, mkt likley to move up soon. Also Buy Nifty 5000 Call Option @48-50, SL @ 40, TGT 65+: JK, HBJ Capital

Aug 6th - 12:49pm: Nifty Fut TGT#2 4705 achieved (Profit=Rs1750/lot) book partial profit. Expect further move, look for TGT#3 4723. Hold Nifty 5000 Call Option: JK

Aug 6th - 12:56pm: Pls continue to hold Nifty long pos & Nifty 5000 Call Option, Mkt likely to move up & close around 4720-4730 & above today: JK, HBJ Cap

Aug 6th - 1:15pm: Nifty Future TGT#3 4723 achieved (Profit=Rs2650/lot) book complete profit. Limited upside from here. Pls hold Nifty 4700 & 5000 Call Options: JK, HBJ

Aug 6th - 1:44pm: Nifty Calls : Pls book complete profit in Nifty 4700 & 5000 Call (bought@ 145 & 48; Profit=700 + 1500 = 2200/lot). Hold Balrampur Chini & Unitech: JK

Aug 6th - 2:40pm: Don't touch the market now, let it fall. Wait for 3pm to take a call on the next move. We already adviced our traders to book complete profit at 4723 levels: JK

Aug 6th - 3:18pm: [Positional Calls] - Buy Nifty Future @4565-70, SL @ 4552, TGT#1 4600, TGT#2 4625. Buy Nifty 4700 Call @105, SL @90, TGT 150+: JK, HBJ Cap

Aug 6th - 3:22pm: Total Profit in Nifty Fut/Opt for today (Rs 2650 + Rs 2200 = Rs 4850/lot). Pls hold Nifty Fut/Opt positional calls for tomm. Have a Good Day Ahead!

-JK

Aug 6th : Morning Call : Once again look for the lower levels to take long position; no breakout either side seen today.

US market fell down slightly yesterday. Today asian markets are showing mix to +ve movement. What we have seen in Indian market yesterday was a sharp recovery lead by buying from institution in the 2nd half of the day. Yesterday, the trading volume in Nifty August futures indicated that the spot index is likely to close above 4,700 today. The August futures closed at a 10-point premium to the spot and added an open interest (OI) of 901,550 shares. But today Aug future is trading either flat to -ve from the spot.

What type of position a trade should take today?

If the Nifty trades convincingly above 4,700 levels, then it is likely to test 4,740-4,780 levels. Last 2-3 days movement in the market indicates that the index would play around with these levels on a day-to-day basis just to get rid of the weaker hands. Technically, the only concern is the setup on the daily oscillators as it continues to be overbought and hence a little more consolidation can be expected. Hence, a trader must wait for dips around Nifty 4650 & below levels to take long positions.

-JK

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Aug 5th : Closing Bell - It is clear sign in the market for further uptrend which might resume from tomorrow. Continue holding Nifty Call Options.

Today's market move was exactly what we anticipated, we did fell down 1% and bounced back, trading above 4700 levels. This is a clear sign for further upside but don't expect gap-up opening for tomorrow. We will again see zig-zag movement with +ve bias for tomorrow, since IV is around 35-40 levels hence one need not fear for sell off.

Don't carry any future positions for tomorrow, but stay with Call Options in Stocks/Nifty for tomorrow. There are some important data like un-employment numbers to be announced in US starting form Wed, in case of any serious bad news from global market, we might see some jurk at this point of time. Hence, stay with lighter position & long positions.

-JK

Aug 5th : Mid-Day Call - Market will bounce back and close flat or +ve. Good to go long now, as we have had descent profit shorting Nifty today.

Market did fell down 1% which was have expected and there is a recovery seen in the 2nd half which is going on now, we are expecting market to close flat to +ve. That is why now we have given long call in Nifty future. What I can see is two days of consolidation is over now, it is time for us to move ahead.

One should look for Nifty levels of 4710-20 to strongly believe in the uptrend, only a stable closing above these levels will help or say attract more buyers. Sugar stocks are in upward momuntum, there is sugar deficit across globe hence better to accumulate Sugar stocks for short term gains.

-JK

Aug 5th : Live Market Trading Calls Updated @ SLT by JK [Profit = Rs 1700 + Rs 1950 = Rs 3650/lot]

Aug 5th - 10:48am: Sell Nifty Future around 4660-4665, SL @ 4682, TGT#1 4642, TGT#2 4631. Take fresh exposure in Nifty 4700 Call @125, SL @ 105, TGT 155+: JK, HBJ Capital

Aug 5th - 11:26am: Nifty Future close to TGT#1 4642 (Notional Profit = Rs 1150/lot) stay with short position. Mkt likely to extend the fall, look for TGT#2 4631 : JK, HBJ

Aug 5th - 11:30am: Nifty Future TGT#2 4631 achieved (Profit = Rs 1700/lot), book partial profit. Look for TGT#3 4618 : JK, HBJ Capital

Aug 5th - 11:52am: Nifty might not hit TGT#3 4618. Pls book complete profit in Nifty short pos & Buy Nifty Future around 4650-55, SL @ 4630, TGT#1 4673, TGT#2 4689 : JK

Aug 5th - 12:08pm: Cash Mkt Delivery Call : Buy Balrampur Chini @124, SL @ 118, TGT 137. Option Call : Buy Balrampur Chini 130 Call Option around Rs 5, SL @ 4, TGT 8 : JK

Aug 5th -12:33pm: Pls hold your Nifty Future long positions, move SL down to 4620. After 1% fall in the mkt, we are expecting bounce back now. Nifty 4700 Call @135 can be bought.

Aug 5th - 2:05 pm: Nifty Future TGT#1 4673 achieved (Profit = Rs 1150/lot) book partial profit now. We are expecting further move up, expect TGT#2 4689 : JK, HBJ Cap

Aug 5th - 2:25 pm: Nifty Future TGT#1 & TGT#2 @ 4689 achieved (Profit = Rs 1950/lot) book complete profit now. Don't carry any future pos for tomm: JK, HBJ Capital

Aug 5th - 2:31pm : Nifty 4700 Call buy given @145 now 162 -Book partial profit. Balrampur Chini 130 Call buy given @5 now 6.50 - Hold. Also hold Unitech trading @93 : JK

Aug 5th - 2:35pm: Total Profit in Nifty Fut for today (Rs 1700 + Rs 1950 = Rs 3650/lot). Nifty 4700 Call & Balrampur Chini 130 Call in profit zone. Have a Good Day Ahead!

Aug 5th: Morning Call - Mkt likely to be in +ve zone with ~1% upside, look for dips to take long positions.

As expected, the Nifty could not sustain above 4,700 and closed at 4,680 as investors booked profits on Tue. Yesterday, Nifty August futures traded at 15 points discount to the spot intraday and closed at a discount of two points, indicating build-up of short positions at higher levels. Today, global markets are showing mix reaction, hence no clear direction to dictate Indian market but short term trend is +ve which might lead to higher levels in a day or two.

What should a trader do today?
Look for 4660-70 levels to take entry in the market with long positions, we don't see any sell off today, there are lots of people standing out to ride this uptrend hence stay long.

-JK

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

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- Team SLT