Yesterday's [June 24th] Trading Calls Performance [100% Correct] : What Next On Thu, June 25th?

National Stock Exchange’s Nifty closed at 4292.95, up 45.95 points or 1.08 per cent. The broader index touched an intra-day high of 4307 and low of 4218.25.

Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex ended at 14,422.73, up 98.72 points or 0.69 per cent. It touched a high of 14479.82 and low of 14207.02 during the day.

Traders are awaiting US economic data, onset of monsoon and union budget before taking any decisive call. There is no consensus on where the market is headed. Those who have gone long are not ready to rollover positions while those with short positions are squaring off on fears that market will witness a sharp pull-back.

European markets were firm after the European Central Bank said it will lend banks over $600 billion. US stock futures were also in the green ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates and reports on durable goods orders and new home sales.

What Next on Thu, June 25th?
The day of expiry market is highly un-predictable because everything depends on open positions. But what I see here is......let us suppose there are 100 traders and 80% were in long side and 20% in short side of the market [usually less number of people short the market]. At this point of time, most of the traders who were in long side will be in loss because during last 1 week market fell down 6-7% hence they will not do rollover of their positions, most of them must have exited for rest of them, their positions will go worthless.

20% of the traders with short positions must be in profit. Now they have 2 options, first to rollover to July series or 2nd is to square off. Rollover to July is not likely move because next event is budget which can create high volatility either side for the market (Short traders already got killed during election results when market went up 17%]. Hence, square off is the only option left for 20% of the short position traders. On June 25th when these short position traders will try to exit from their position there will be huge short covering which might take Nifty upside 1-2%.

Yesterday's [June 24th] Trading Calls Performance :- [Rs30,000 intraday profit per lot in Suzlon Energy 110 Call given today]
There was 3 sms sent to all the paid subscribers with following text msg, performance in blue italics.

1. June 24th - 9:55am :Mkt likely to open 1% up today, expect short covering above 4300 levels. Exit RIL 1950 Call tgt130-150. Buy ICICI 700 Call at Rs8-10, SL @ 5, tgt20-30: HBJ Cap : As expected market did opened 1% but later on lost its gains. We suggested our traders to book profit from RIL 1920/1950 calls givens yesterday, especially for those who were not able to sell due to low liquidity at these in-the money options. ICICI 700 Call did not worked well.
2. June 24th - 12 noon :Buy Suzlon 110 Call Option below Rs3, SL @ 2.5, tgt5. If you are still holding RIL Calls due to low liquidity then just hold till expiry. Set Exit price for ICICI 700 Call @8: HBJ Cap : Suzlon 110 call was given at Rs3 which hit Rs8 and there was a profit of Rs5 per lot (lot size = 6000). Here we suggested traders to exit from ICICI counter at their buy price of approx Rs8, with no profit/loss.
3. June 24th - 3pm : Book profit from Suzlon 110 Call @8 (Profit = Rs30,000/lot). Book profit from RIL 1920/1950 Call now. Buy Nifty 4200 Call @100, SL @ 80, hold for tomm : HBJ Cap : Traders booked profit of Rs30K (Rs5 gain * 6000 lot size) in Suzlon 110 Call option. Also suggested to hold Nifty 4200 in-the money call for tomorrow.

-JK, Senior Technical Analyst
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