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OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY 27TH JULY '10

The markets took a breather from the continuous ascent in the last few sessions. The expiry of the month on Thursday also played its role in the previous trading session. The profit taking was evident in the individual stocks and sectors as a whole. The buying frenzy was absent in the markets and market lacked momentum for the higher levels. The correction could be attributed to the lower risk strategy by the markets ahead of the expiry. The event to be watched would be the policy rate announcement by the Reserve Bank and a view on the monetary policy in these high inflation times which is posing a difficult task considering the delicate balance between productive liquidity and unproductive part. The technical suggests that the 5400 level would be acting as a strong sentimental support for the markets. The short term moving average (20-EMA) is a significant support to the Nifty in cases of a possible dip. The top out pattern in the medium term moving average (50-EMA) would inflict the current surge of the market for time to come. These two averages will be near to the 5355 levels which could be the next platform for the markets.
The ADX indicator has topped out although for this dip in the Nifty in the previous session to be converted in a major correction, the indicator should continue it’s decent with momentum. The +DI and –DI has also topped and bottomed up respectively which indicates that the buyers are closing their long positions and the sellers are initiating some short positions on higher levels.
The MACD trend indicator is also giving a correction on the relative basis whereas the MACD line is crossing the Signal line which generates a profit booking signal in the current bull markets. The MACD Histogram is also penetrating in the negative domain which signifies that the expiry could bring a correction in the Nifty.
The Slow Stochastic momentum indicator is pointing towards the buying momentum present in the market at every lower level of the markets. The %K and %D line are trading in the above mid zone which gives a buying momentum present in the market in absolute terms and the %K line above the %D is generating a buying momentum in relative terms. We expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5485-5395.

TEAM SLT

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Outlook for the Week : the Expiry Sessions........

The week that was.
The week was marked by decent gain on the charts but the important development was the levels touched by the S&P Nifty in absolute terms. This week has made strong pitch for the market to attempt out of the range 5100-5400 and set the stage for next phase of bull run. The quarterly results of the companies were encouraging with industry giants irrespective of sectors performing better than the expectation of the market.

It seemed that the breakout by the Nifty out of the range is unlikely in current scenario but the market demonstrated resilience in weak global conditions. The strength was visible on days of positive global cues coming from the European indices. The “better than expected” performance by the Wall Street listed companies brought cheers on the indexes around the world. The Wall Street discounted every negative flow of news and announcement and looked poised for gains.

The stellar performance by giants like HDFC & TCS form different sectors provided strength to these counters as well as sectorial indexes, as results by industry majors is taken as guidance by the market for the particular sector.

The developments were encouraging for the market and Nifty closed with some weight added in the last two sessions after a tepid movement in the benchmark.

What’s ahead?
This would be an important week for the market in terms of the major announcements which could be expected. The week would be witnessing the expiry, in recent times is accompanied with highly volatile sessions. The upwards breakout in the market could be susceptible to some profit booking taking place near the expiry. Also the major policy rate announcement is timed to come on 27th July. The market is expecting a 25 basis points increase in the key rates, which would be adjusted by the indexes before the date. The rate sensitive sectors such as auto, banks and real estate would be on the radar in case the announcement contains some surprising elements in it. The apex bank is also expected to provide assessment of inflationary trends and economic growth forecast.

The chart of Nifty index is looking strong with a support near the short term moving average (20-EMA) which is continuing with the ascending trend. The current 5358 would be acting as a strong support in case of an impending correction before expiry. The medium term moving average (50-EMA) will be the next level of support in case the market goes for a dip in case of an unexpected development.

The technical picture of the S&P Nifty is currently witnessing the bullish side of the market in recent times. The technical charting shows that the ADX has bottomed up even at high levels, thus reversing the previous trend with high trending support. The current reading of ADX is near the 48 level which suggest the presence of a strong trend in the benchmark. This could be the final stage of the surge in case the ADX tops out in immediate time to come. This could bring some correction only with this development on the charts as high value of ADX indicator is not sustainable for a longer time. The +DI & -DI are periodic in nature, considering the fact the bulls are currently on a higher ground which could continue for the time to come. The MACD indicator is also giving some bullish signal for the immediate future, with the MACD line crossing over the Signal line, a positive indication. The MACD Histogram is also floating in the positive territory which on a short time frame is a periodic indicator. The histogram if continues to make higher tops will be a buying signal for the indices.

The Slow Stochastic momentum indicator is also bouncing back from the near 50 levels. As suggested in our newsletter, a possible inflection would be providing the momentum required for the market to attempt for a higher level. Thus the %K line along with the %D line has bottomed up near the mid-level, providing impetus to the market for the current surge.

The movement in the markets this week would be defined by the policy announcement by Central bank, quarterly results and the world markets. The interrelation of the markets would be on a higher level in times to come and ripples of a possible major development will be reflected around the world. We expect Nifty to trade on the range of 5485-5385.

TEAM SLT

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Outlook for the Day: 22nd July 2010

The benchmark opened up with a gap up opening taking into account the positive global cues. This acted as a support to Nifty which looked to a bit tired and traders were anticipating of an impending correction. However the momentum picked in the mid-session with the steel sector outperforming the index with full strength. The buying was evident for the lower levels which suggest that even if the correction does occurs; it would be short term in nature and shallow bottomed.

The moving averages both short & medium term moving average (20 & 50 EMA) at 5327/5253 level would be acting as a strong support. The downside for the index looks capped and it would be better to trade with “buy on dips’ strategy. The chart of the index looks strong and resilient to any negative news flows and global developments. This could be the case where the index may touch newer highs in the medium to immediate time frame. The policy rate announcement by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would be instrumental, not only in forming the economic prospects of the country but also the direction of the market for the next lap of advance.

The ADX is continuing with the rounding pattern on the charts which technically suggest a slow correction in the benchmark. Any bottom up formation in the ADX would be giving a push to the Nifty to cross the previous resistance. The previous session was marked by a decrease in the buyers rather than an increase in the sellers, as suggested by the moves in the +DI & -DI lines.
The MACD trend indicator is wobbling due to the frequent crossover in the MACD line and Signal line, which is an indication to the range bound markets in the present scenario. The range may be tepid for the sessions to come; a breakout could be sought after major policy announcement by the Central Bank and the expiry of the July series. The MACD Histogram is making non uniform which makes it difficult to anticipate the direction of the market even for the next session.

From the option data, the concentration of the volume is between the 5500/5400 NIFTY CALL and 5200/5300 NIFTY PUT. This suggests the range of the market before the expiry to be in between 5200 on the lower side and 5500 on the higher side. The increase in the Nifty Option Volume is the highest in case of the 5500 NIFTY CALL, which is a bullish signal for the markets; in this case the index is increasing with high increase in the open interest of the 5500 NIFTY CALL OPT, giving a clear signal of bulls concentrating on the higher level for an intermediate to near term.

As suggested in the newsletters, the Slow Stochastic momentum indicator is now trading near the 50 levels. A sideways movement could be expected with this indicator which would provide a range bound motion of the benchmark. However in case the indicator continues its journey towards lower levels then it would be the case of a limited downside to the markets. We expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5355-5415.

TEAM SLT

Outlook for the Day: 21st July 2010

Benchmark indices went for a slight correction in today’s trading session. This could be the starting of the medium term correction and markets may take a dip before the expiry of the month commences. As suggested in our newsletters, the index was range bound for the whole session. The range between 5415-5335 was visible as suggested and this could be acting as a resistance and support to the index.

The ADX indicator, as already suggested in the previous newsletters is forming a rounding pattern. This would be a signal to a slow correction in Nifty. The +DI & -DI is also continuing with the direction towards a possible crossover which possible will provide an upper edge to the bears.

The MACD indicator has crossed on the sell side of the trade. As suggested, the position should be on the side of the crossover. However the benchmark is going to get strong near the short term moving average (20-EMA) near the 5325 levels for the sessions to come. In case of a severe correction, the Nifty would get a strong support near the medium term moving average (50-EMA). The MACD Histogram has penetrated into the negative domain, which would be acting as a sell signal for lower values of the histogram.

The Slow Stochastic momentum indicator is also moving towards the 50 levels. The momentum could be transferred to the sell side if these 50 levels are penetrated by the %K & %D lines. However a gradual decent would be leading to a slow trending correction in the benchmark index. We expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5395-5325.

TEAM SLT

Outlook for the Day: 20th July 2010

Taking cues from the overseas markets Nifty in the previous trading session opened with a gap down near the strong support of the 5365 level. The buyers were active at every lower levels and the benchmark got support on each correction. Nifty was insulated from the global cues for the latter half of the session and maintained the 5385 mark for most of the time. At the closing bell some profit was taken off the table with the benchmark closing marginally in red.
The technicals on the charts are suggesting an inflection point on the cards. The indicators are providing cues of a highly volatile session in the shorter time frame. The moving averages both short term moving average (20-EMA) and the long term moving average (50-EMA) are continuing with their directions. The current uptrend would be coming to a halt when both the averages tops out, which is a possible case if the benchmark goes for a severe correction. A strong support could be expected at these levels in the case of a severe correction.
The ADX is giving a rounding pattern on the charts which indicates a slower correction in the benchmark. The +DI and –DI have already topped and bottomed up respectively. This indicates that the buyers are not active at higher levels and sellers are building positions gradually. The crossover of these two would be an important event to watch for.
The MACD indicator as suggested in our previous newsletters has marginally closed in the negative region after the crossover. The MACD Histogram is also trading with making lower tops with each trading session. The subsequent move into the negative domain would be a signal towards weakness in the benchmarks. The bounce back from the zero levels would again bring buying trend in the Nifty which would be a strong buy signal for the markets not to be ignored.
The Slow Stochastic momentum indicator is also trading towards the 50 levels. The indicator would be suggesting a sideways movement in the index for the time to come if it sustains near those level. However any movement below these lines would point towards a momentum on the short side of the trade. We expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5335-5395 in today’s session.

TEAM SLT

Outlook for the Day: 19th July 2010

The major driving force for the market would be the result announcement and guidance by the companies. The results will be acting as a key driver for the stock prices to take direction according to the expectations by streets in today’s session. The scrip prices will be reacting to the performance of the companies and a “below than expected” would be liable for profit booking. The session would be guided by the sector specific announcements by the companies; some of the sectorial behemoths are yet to make the announcement.

The technical picture is showing strength in the market but the scenario could change in case of a major announcement. The charts would be drawn in the favor of the change in technical picture of the benchmark. The 5445 is going to be a strong resistance for the immediate future and the index could be susceptible to some profit booking. The short term moving average (20-EMA) will be acting as a strong support for the benchmark in case of a major downslide. The medium term moving average (50-EMA) is still below the short term counterpart which suggests the current surge to continue until the averages tops out.

The ADX is trading near the 49 levels which would be a trend continuation signal in case the sideways as evident on the charts for the indicator continues for the time being. The current trend would reverse if the ADX tops out, which would be a major signal to book some profits. The +DI & -DI have started their journey towards a possible crossover, in which case the sellers would be at a better hand. The market would be deciding the new direction which the inflection point of these indicators crossover.

The MACD trend indicator is suggesting a sideways trend which could change in case the crossover of the MACD line and Signal lines happens. The crossover between both the lines will be the deciding factor for the next possible move in the Nifty. The MACD Histogram is also making lower tops each trading session which could lead to a sell signal in case the indicator moves towards negative domain.

The Slow Stochastic momentum indicator is coming off its highs and the subsequent move towards the 50 levels could be expected for the indicators. The %D line and the %K line are trading at below 80 levels with a momentum towards taking the profit off the table. The momentum in case of the indicator in the upper 80 line would again bring the buying momentum back to the indices. We expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5415-5350 for today’s session.

TEAM SLT

Outlook for the Day: 16th July 2010

The previous session was marked by a series of ups and downs in the benchmark index. The S&P Nifty was moving in tandem to the announcement of the quarterly earnings results of companies. The trend of the index continues to be firm for the immediate future. We expect Nifty to be driven by intraday news flow and guidance given by the majors, determining the sectorial view for the market.

The charts show a pause in the current uptrend which could be a pivot for the short term movement in Nifty. The short term moving average (20EMA) is continuing its position above the medium term moving average (50EMA) suggesting that the medium term outlook for index is bullish. However some downside could be witnessed with a possible dip near the 20-EMA.
The ADX indicator for previous session showed decline in its advance and forming a sideways pattern. Any topping out of the indicator would seriously inflict the current uptrend and benchmarks would be susceptible to a correction. The +DI & -DI have both topped and bottomed up in the session suggesting that buyers and sellers have reversed their approach towards the market. This is a periodic signal which has to be confirmed by other indicators as well.

The MACD trend indicator is showing some significant development on the charts. The MACD signal line has topped out and is making new lows in each trading session. The market could see some correction on the cards if the line manages to cross over the Signal line. In the case of bouncing back at the inflection point, the range of the market would widen. The MACD
Histogram has topped out and a penetration into the negative domain would give some room for the Nifty to move to lower levels.

The Slow Stochastic momentum indicator is also showing some decrease in momentum on the buying side. The move below the 80 levels of both the %D & %K line would provide impetus to the sellers and unwinding of long positions is a possible scenario. Keeping in view the possible crossover or bounce back of MACD indicator, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5415- 5335.

TEAM SLT