Monday, September 22, 2014

BPCL CAN GIVE YOU BETTER RETURNS IN SHORT TERM...

Company:                   Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL).
Sector:                        Oil & Gas.
Recommendation:     Strong Buy
Target:                                    740
Holding period:          10 Days.

INTRODUCTION

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), one of the largest public sector oil marketing companies in India has three operating refineries (including subsidiaries) and a strong network of marketing and distribution of petroleum products across the country. BPCL is one of the first few public sector companies who have leveraged technology to become more efficient, reduce costs, and achieve greater customer satisfaction. It is the first Public Sector Oil Company to implement Enterprise wide Resource Planning (ERP) solutions - SAP. Leveraging technology has also helped BPCL to have an efficient risk mitigation system in place.


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

BPCL has reported 13.7% yoy rise in net sales to Rs 667.9 bn for Q1 FY15. The growth was on the account of 5.9% yoy rise in domestic sales and 7% yoy increase in product realizations. Export volumes were lower by 51% yoy. Budgetary support to the topline was seen at Rs 24 bn vis-a-vis Rs 19 bn in corresponding quarter last year and sans the government payout the growth in topline was lower at 13.3% yoy. Total product sales for the quarter were recorded at 9.4mmt, implying a 1.7% yoy growth mainly led by 5.9% growth in domestic sales.  For the quarter, growth in volumes was driven by MS, LPG and HSD segments which grew by a healthy 10% yoy, 12.2% yoy and 2.5% yoy respectively.  The net under recoveries for Q1 FY15 stands at Rs 5 bn as compared to Rs 5.5 bn seen last year.

Quarterly GRM’s fall on back of weak environment
The gross refining margins (GRM) for the quarter fell from US$ 6.7/bbl in Q4 FY14 to US$ 3.4/bbl owing to weakness in benchmark Singapore GRMs and weaker product slate. The quarterly refining profits were lower by 15.2% yoy on the back of 16.5% fall in GRMs, lower throughput were offset partially by depreciation in rupee.

Net profit at Rs12.1bn
BPCL reported a net profit of R s12.1bn as compared to a profit of Rs 1.5bn in Q1 FY14. The interest expenses came in lower at Rs 1.9bn a fall of 63% yoy as the payments from government improved considerably leading to lower working capital loans. On capex for modernization of Kochi refinery, management guided for Rs 140 bn spread over 4 years with bulk of the spending starting from FY15.

E&P FID nearing and recent policy moves incrementally favorable; Maintain BUY

While the OMC’s have been plagued with uncertainties surrounding the subsidy payouts and have witnessed sporadic cash flows, BPCL’s venture into the E&P segment is a welcome move. The project execution in E&P is still far but with the Final Investment Decision (FID) nearing for its upstream asset in Mozambique, some monetary crystallization of upstream assets is expected. Additionally on the marketing side, recent policy steps are expected to be incrementally positive. Also, softening crude prices is the much needed booster shot for the ailing oil and gas space.  Thus, BPCL remains one of our top picks in oil & gas space and we maintain our BUY recommendation with a 10 day price target of Rs 740.




BPCL has been trading with good volumes in the range of 630 to 720 with good volumes and the stock continues to take support at key levels. The stock traded above the pivot point for the day at 660, and broke the first resistance level of 667 with high volumes.  The key support levels for the stock are 660, 664, and 667 while the while the key resistance levels are 674, 677, and 682. These levels are computed using the classic methodology formulas. The RSI, Stochastic, ADX, Williams, CCI, ATR, Ultimate Oscillator, and ROC indicate strong buys on the hourly chart, while the STOCHRSI indicates a neutral position. Among the key technical indicators only the ADX indicates neutral, while the rest indicate strong buys.


The Moving Averages, both simple and exponential, of 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 periods all indicate strong buys save for the 5 minute simple moving chart which indicates a sell while the exponential average for the same period is still a buy.

CONCLUSION

Since the stock has been outperforming the Sensex (see Illustration above), and the technical indicators are favorable, we maintain strong BUY Rating on the stock with a target of 740 with a holding period of 10 days.

ARTICLE BY JOBY KLAPTON( TECHNICAL ANALYST, HBJ CAPITAL)


[for detail report call  @ 09066326169] 







DISCLAIMER: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or any invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures nor other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). Investors/traders should do their due diligence before taking any action based on our analysis. Stoplosstrade.com or any of its associates or employees does not accept any liability whatsoever direct or indirect that may arise from the use of the information herein.

STORNG BREAKOUT STOCK- BUY ITC

                                             
Recommendation: Buy
CMP: 370.75
Stop loss: 356
Target: 390
Duration: 5-7 days
                                             Why ITC?
It has broken the trend line on the upperside today.
It has formed a triangle pattern and has given strong breakout with strong volume.
There is constant increase in buying volume from past three days suggesting increased buying of the stock.

Buy the stock from current levels with a holding period of 5-7 days



ANALYSIS BY AMIR (TECHNICAL ANALYST, HBJCAPITAL)

[for detail report call  @ 09066326169] 








DISCLAIMER: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or any invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures nor other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). Investors/traders should do their due diligence before taking any action based on our analysis. Stoplosstrade.com or any of its associates or employees does not accept any liability whatsoever direct or indirect that may arise from the use of the information herein.

Double bottom formation in 4 hr chart to lift the stock to its previous highs....


Recommendation: BUY ONGC

BUY ABOVE – 419

CMP – 418.15

TARGET – 450


STOP LOSS - 400


TECHNICAL VIEW:-

ONGC stock in a severe decline, has a sharp bounce off the lows, has formed piercing pattern along with DOUBLE BOTTOM IN 4 hrs Chart.





FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:-

ONGCʹ s oil discovery in Bay of Bengal will begin production in 2019, with a projected peak output of 4.5 Million tonnes a year, 20 % more than previous estimates.


Analysis by Puneeth ( Technical Analyst, HBJ CAPITAL)


[for detail report call  @ 09066326169] 







DISCLAIMER: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or any invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures nor other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). Investors/traders should do their due diligence before taking any action based on our analysis. Stoplosstrade.com or any of its associates or employees does not accept any liability whatsoever direct or indirect that may arise from the use of the information herein.

Daily Market Outlook-22nd sep 2014- Do Not panic with the Gap down today, Just buy the dips...

market outlook logo red

Greetings,

Do Not panic with the Gap down today, Just buy the dips...

Global Market Update:-

U.S. stocks rose on Friday after investors applauded Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba's initial public offering as well as Scotland's decision to stay in the U.K., though profit taking trimmed gains later in the session. At the close of U.S. trading, the Dow rose 0.08%, the S&P  index fell 0.05%, while the NASDAQ index fell 0.30%Elsewhere, Scotland's decision to stay in the U.K. sent stocks rising earlier in the session as well. Concerns that a Scottish secession may disrupt the U.K. economy and prompt other European regions to follow suit rattled nerves prior to Friday.

Indian Market Update:-

Indian markets witnessed in some amount of profit taking after the bullish rally on Thursday. Benchmark indices closed mixed ahead of week end has the traders does not want to carry huge positions on the week end.
Nothing to worry of the profit taking session as the over all outlook for the Nifty is positive as it is trading in a bullish zone of the band and well above the nearest MA’s.

It will be a last week of expiry so indices will trade in a range bound before the roll over position taken in the next month contract. So this expiry may close some  where between the 8100-8200 mark and for the month Nifty May close positive.  Nifty has strong support at 8080 and resistance at 8180 levles.
Today markets may start in red but, Buy on dips is recommended.

Trading Tips for the day:-

Cash pick:-
Recommendation: BUY MUTHOOTFIN
CMP: 203
Target: 222
Stop loss: 197
Time duration: 2 WEEKS

Derivative pick:-
Recommendation: BUY IBREALEST
CMP: 71
Target: 80
Stop loss: 67
Time duration: 2-3 Weeks

FII and DII Activity:-
FII sold 6 crores worth of stocks in Equity and DII added 237 crores in Equity.

Macro-Economic Data:-
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to appear before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Committee, in Brussels

Conclusion:-
Do not panic with the gap down, Just buy the dips...

[for detail report call  @ 09066326169] 







DISCLAIMER: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or any invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures nor other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). Investors/traders should do their due diligence before taking any action based on our analysis. Stoplosstrade.com or any of its associates or employees does not accept any liability whatsoever direct or indirect that may arise from the use of the information herein.

A stock that can not be IGNORED....


Company:                     Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd.
Sector:                           Logistics.
Recommendation:        Strong Buy


Mundra Port and Special Economic Zone (MPSEZ), India's largest private port and special economic zone, was incorporated as Gujarat Adani Port (GAPL) in 1998 to develop a private port at Mundra, on the west coast of India. The company commenced commercial operations in October 2001. Mundra Special Economic Zone (MSEZ) was incorporated in November 2003, to set up an SEZ at Mundra.  MSEZ was merged with GAPL in April 2006 and the company was renamed as Mundra Port and Special Economic, to reflect the nature of business.  MPSEZL on Nov 21, 2011, was renamed Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd. and this change in name from MPSEZL to APSEZL has come into effect from Jan.6, 2012.  The company is promoted by Adani Group with interests in Infrastructure, Power, Global Trading, Logistics, Energy, Port & SEZ, Mining, Oil & Gas, Agri Business, FMCG products, Real Estate Development, Bunkering, etc.


The company has posted a rise of 37.85% in its net profit at Rs 577.03 cr for the quarter ended JUNE 30, 2014 as compared to Rs 418.59 cr for the same quarter in the previous year.  For the year ended March 31, 2014, the company has posted a jump of 9.61 % in its net profit at Rs 1741.00 cr as compared to Rs 1588.35 cr for the same period in the previous year. Total income of company improved by 34.87% at Rs 4823.99 cr for year under review as compared to Rs 3576.63 cr for the period ended March 31, 2013. The company is looking at earnings accretion, and the earnings from its newest ports will help achieve its projected CAGR of 30%.


BUSINESS

Mundra Port, India's largest private port, provides cargo handling and other value-added port services. The port offers a number of locational and logistical advantages. The company also offers facilities of Cargo Handling & Storage. The Mundra Port has state of the art facilities for the handling and warehousing of dry cargo.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Dhamra Port Acquisition
Adani Ports has executed a definitive agreement with L&T Infrastructures and Tata Steel Ltd to acquire 100% stake in Dhamra Port Company Ltd at an enterprise value of 5500 cr. This continued expansion plans will allow Adani Ports to fulfill its stated vision of becoming a 200 million metric tons ports business well before the year 2020.

Good Numbers from Dahej & Hazira Ports
Dahej reported Q1FY15 volume growth of 28% at 2.85 mt against estimate of 1.80 mt whereas volumes at Hazira Port grew by 84% at 1.60 mt against estimates of 1 mt led by Steel Pipes and Rock Phosphate.  EBITDA margin at Hazira came in at 74% whereas Dahej clocked EBITDA Margin of 72%.

Expanding Company
India has an extensive coastline of 7,517 kilometers (excluding the Andaman and Nicobar Islands), with a port industry that has grown dramatically, from five ports with cargo traffic tonnage handled between 19 and 20 mmt at the time of independence, to 12 Major Ports and 186 Non-major Ports with total cargo traffic tonnage handled of 934.88 mmt for the fiscal year 2013. Ports handle approximately 93% of India's total trade in terms of volume and 75% in terms of value. Total volumes are expected to increase further as India continues its economic expansion, with real GDP growth in India expected to average 7.2% and 8.0% per year for the 5 and 10 years from the fiscal year 2014, respectively, making India one of the fastest growing economies in the world.

KEY RISK
·         Competition from several other small ports.
·         Company has around 13000 cr debt on its books.

TRADING OPPORTINITIES
Adani ports has been trading with good volumes in the range of 270 to 305, and the stock continues to take support at key levels.  The stock traded below the pivot point for the day at 294, but still held on the major support level of 285.  The key support levels for the stock are 287, 280, and 273 while the key resistance levels are 300, 308, and 314.  These levels are computed using the classic methodology formulas.  The RSI, Stochastic, MACD, Williams, CCI, ATR, Ultimate Oscillator, and ROC indicate strong buys on the weekly chart, while the STOCHRSI indicates oversold position.  Among the key technical indicators only the ADX indicates neutral, while the rest indicate strong buys.  

The Moving Averages, both simple and exponential, of 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 periods all indicate strong buys save for the 5 minute simple moving chart which indicates a sell while the exponential average for the same period is still a buy.

CONCLUSION
Since the stock has been outperforming the Sensex (see Illustration above), and the technical indicators are favorable, we maintain strong BUY Rating on the stock. 

Joby J Klapton[Technical Analyst, HBJ Capital]

[for detail report call  @ 09066326169]


DISCLAIMER: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or any invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures nor other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). Investors/traders should do their due diligence before taking any action based on our analysis. Stoplosstrade.com or any of its associates or employees does not accept any liability whatsoever direct or indirect that may arise from the use of the information herein.

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Higher top higher bottom pattern to take the ICICI bank to form neer highs....



Recommendation: BUY ICICI BANK
BUY ABOVE – 1585
CMP – 1574
TARGET – 1685

STOP LOSS - 1520

TECHNICAL VIEW:-



ICICI BANK stock has retraced and have taken the support zone of the lower line of the upward channel and bounced back forming the bullish engulfing pattern and closinfg last day of the trade with bullish hammer candle stick. counter is also making the higher top higher bottom pattern to take the counter to its newer highs.

Article by Puneeth (TECHNICAL ANALYST)

[for detail report call  @ 09066326169] 







DISCLAIMER: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or any invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures nor other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). Investors/traders should do their due diligence before taking any action based on our analysis. Stoplosstrade.com or any of its associates or employees does not accept any liability whatsoever direct or indirect that may arise from the use of the information herein.

Bajaj Auto has formed the rare pattern of Cup and handle, it will sky rockets to its new life time highs....

                  
Recommendation: Buy
CMP: 2412.35
STOPLOSS: 2325
TARGET: 2550
DURATION: 1-2 WEEKS


                    WHY BAJAJ-AUTO?   



The stock has formed a Cup & Handle pattern and given a breakout today with good buy volume
It has also broken its resistance level of 2375-2380 levels and is now trading at life time high.
The buying volume from past three days is showing fresh long build up in the stock.

One should be looking to buy the stock from current levels for a target of 2550 in next 5-10 trading sessions with a stop loss of 2325

Article by Amir (TECHNICAL ANALYST)


[for detail report call  @ 09066326169] 









DISCLAIMER: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or any invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures nor other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). Investors/traders should do their due diligence before taking any action based on our analysis. Stoplosstrade.com or any of its associates or employees does not accept any liability whatsoever direct or indirect that may arise from the use of the information herein.

After the complete erosion of the rally, IBreal estate pull back again....

IBREAL ESTATE LOGO

Recommendation: BUY IBREALEST
CMP: 71
Target: 80
Stop loss: 67
Time duration: 2-3 Weeks
TECHNICAL VIEW:-
Ibreal est charts
After the 90% of the retracement from the recent rally, IBREAL EST  Have given bullish engulfing candle stick pattern with the good volumes on daily chart and counter has broken a short term downward channel trend line on the upside. The counter has managed to form higher top higher bottom pattern.

[for detail report call  @ 09066326169] 







DISCLAIMER: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or any invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures nor other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). Investors/traders should do their due diligence before taking any action based on our analysis. Stoplosstrade.com or any of its associates or employees does not accept any liability whatsoever direct or indirect that may arise from the use of the information herein.

Friday, September 19, 2014

Bulls took charge completely after the Markets opened in a negative territory, Just Buy on dips Target for Nifty is 8500 by October-end

Market outlook green logo

Greetings,

Bulls took charge completely after the Markets opened in a negative territory, Just Buy on dips Target for Nifty is 8500 by October-end

Global Market Update:-

Global Markets once again closed in a positive note US markets sets the new record life time highs, continued the momentum tracking the fed news that it will keep the interest rates unchanged till the first half of the FY 15.
European markets also rallied by taking the positive cues that Scotland to be remained the part of the UK. But results are not yet finalized.

Indian Market Update:-
Though there was a good cues across the globe, Indian markets started the trade in a negative zone but with in the 30 minutes of trade bulls took charge completely and lifted the market with high volumes, indicating the rally to continue today as well. Nifty charts have taken a complete reversal after a decent retracement and this time signs of breaking 8200 zone is almost looks easier for bulls. However Nifty again has a strong support zone of 8080 levels and resistance above 8180 levels for the short term. Markets have given the signals of the rally will make newer highs this time. Buy Right, Sit tight.

Nifty support and Resistance:-
Nifty spot support at 8080 and Resistance 8150  for the day

FII and DII Activity:-
FII sold 9 crores worth of stocks in Equity and DII added 84 crores in Equity.

Macro-Economic Data:-
There will be no important data which makes difference to markets.

Conclusion:-
Time to buy and participate in the next rally just buy the stocks positionally…

[for detail report call  @ 09066326169] 







DISCLAIMER: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or any invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures nor other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). Investors/traders should do their due diligence before taking any action based on our analysis. Stoplosstrade.com or any of its associates or employees does not accept any liability whatsoever direct or indirect that may arise from the use of the information herein.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Ashok leyland after the retracement starts to upside

Ashok leyland logo
Recommendation: BUY  ASHOKLEY 
CMP:41
Target: 38
Stop loss: 49
Time duration: 2 WEEKS

Technical View:-
Stock is moving in a upward channel making continuously higher top higher bottom pattern with good volumes on the daily charts. stock is also taking the support zone of 20 DMA.

ashok ley charts
Fundamental view:-

The company is well positioned with a relatively high exposure to heavy trucks (over 45 percent of sales), which is already showing early signs of recovery.
Last week, Ashok Leyland has secured orders for 4,000 buses from several state undertakings under the second phase of the JNNRUM scheme.
BoAML expects around 75 percent of these orders to be executed this fiscal year and the balance in FY16E (the bus segment will likely contribute to around 20 percent of its sales). According to the report, the company is also likely to benefit from early cycle recovery in heavy trucks (up 28 percent year-to-date) and bottoming of the small CV market, with inventory correction behind. Over the past year, Ashok Leyland has improved its financial health with net gearing at 1.2x (peak last year 2.2x), thanks to a successful qualified institutional placement (QIP) and the sale of non-core assets.


[for detail report call  @ 09066326169] 












DISCLAIMER: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or any invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures nor other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). Investors/traders should do their due diligence before taking any action based on our analysis. Stoplosstrade.com or any of its associates or employees does not accept any liability whatsoever direct or indirect that may arise from the use of the information herein.