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To educate/provide profitable trading calls from Nifty Future & Option. Stop Loss Trade believes in just one principle: Cash was, is and always will be “KING”; always have cash reserve; cash is your “LIFELINE”; don’t lose your money, your stake, your best friend, your inventory; without cash you are out of business. Hence, preserving your capital & making a reasonable return is our goal. [For more detail, Pls contact: 098867 36791 or Info@hbjcapital.com]
The festival of Ugadi heralds the beginning Kannada New Year and is celebrated all over Karnataka with traditional fervor. While the people of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh use the term Yugadi/Ugadhi for this festival, the people of Maharashtra term the same festival, observed on the same day, Gudi Padwa. Sindhis, people from Sindh, celebrate the same day as their New Year day Cheti Chand. The word 'Ugadi' is derived from the Sanskrit word 'Yugadi', which means 'beginning of a new Yuga or era'. The festival usually falls on the second half of March or early April. This year Ugadi will be celebrated on March 16th (Tuesday).
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- Team SLT
- Looking at the chart during last 2-3 days, after making a high of 4900+ Nifty is drifting down and it seems there is no impact or no so called pre-budget rally. In such case we might see over all market falling 5-6% in next couple of weeks time. For now, we are looking at Nifty levels of 4700 below which we might see 4600 and 4400 at worst case.
Go short in Nifty future!!!
-JK
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- Team SLT
Note: 50% discount offer is applicable only on the monthly package, there is no change in 3 months, 6 months or 12 months package pricing.
-JK, Lead Associate, SLT
Commodity-related shares rose with a slump in the dollar. The main catalyst is weakness in the dollar, which has helped propel energy, basic materials and industrial stocks higher in early trading. Look for the following stocks either in cash mkt, future or option. These stocks can help you gain in short term.....
During last few days there were many readers/traders asking me, Is this the start of a new Bear market Or just a typical correction? To be very frank, there was no clear answer so far but now all of my short-term indicators are telling me that we are approaching the end of this stock market correction. Although we may not be there yet, we are close. So, if you want to trade in Nifty only then take the following position....
- JK, Lead Associate, SLT
-JK, Lead Associate, SLT
Persistent selling in the past 10 sessions by the FIIs helped trigger a collapse. It seems FII selloffs were tactical rather than outright panic exits. The technical picture appears quite negative. The fall is reinforced by breadth – declines far outnumber advances. It would be prudent to expect a slide till at least 4,650 levels.
The rupee has fallen in part due to FII selling, while the RBI has raised the CRR 75 basis points without touching policy rates. The CNXIT lost more ground than the Nifty and most IT majors appear weak. In the derivatives market, the February CNXIT futures settled at a small discount to underlying. Chances are, despite the favourable weak rupee, the CNXIT will lose more ground than the Nifty in the early stages of next week, at least.
Most bank majors appear capable of a further pullback and it is likely that the sector will outperform in the early stages of next week as well. The market may have been overly pessimistic about RBI's determination to cut liquidity and it is now correcting up.
Technically, the market could swing between 4,600 and 5,100 within the next week. February usually sees greater volatility due to Budget expectations as well.
-JK, Lead Associate, SLT
All these issues have conspired to create an overall negative sentiment that finally caused the markets to begin to correct themselves this week.
We knew [new regulations] were coming, but the big question is, how will the market respond to a significant change in the regulatory environment?
With all the uncertainty, investors are taking profits to lock in gains from last year. We would suggest all the investors to protect positions where you have profits, while at the same time, recognize that any pull back here is likely part of the process of exiting the whole crisis era we've been in.
Positive news, including a string of better-than-expected earnings reports, improvement in the financial situation in Greece and greater detail regarding Obama's financial industry restructuring plans would help. But downward trend could drag into next week for a few days.
- JK, Lead Associate, SLT
Change is eternal and at SLT we can see that the market condition in near future is going to be volatile and making money from conventional trading like trading in nifty/stock future & option etc might not be an easy cake. We are getting into trading (zig zag move, neither bullish, nor bearish) market movement from the trending (either way bullish/bearish) earlier. To counter these difficulties we are going to re-design our trading packages such that our trading partners can make/earn money all the time irrespective of market condition.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Thursday it earned $4.79 billion in the fourth quarter as the bank's trading business again outdistanced the rest of the financial industry
As you can see, stocks traded in a parallel range from early November to mid-December. They then began another leg up trading within a rising parallel range. Friday’s sharp down in S&P looks to have broken this range decisively. This certainly does not bode well for the bulls. This break, unless immediately reversed, indicates that the upward momentum of this latest up leg has been broken.
However, one has to be careful in making these kinds of assertions. The fact a trendline is broken does not ALWAYS mean that the top is in. In fact, we had a major trendline broken back in late October. Lot of other analysts were suckered into believing this marked the official top for stocks. However, Bernanke immediately juiced the system again and the market quickly reversed.
In defense of the bears who viewed late October’s collapse as the “top,” stocks have struggled ever since this pattern broke. Indeed, we traded within a tight 1-2% ranged for nearly two months. And the next leg “up” occurred primarily over the holiday weekend when stocks could easily be goosed higher with very little capital. Moreover, one should note that stocks have only risen roughly 4% above the October high: hardly what you could call a massive breakout. Indeed, the fact the market took three months to get 4% higher (compared to 13% rally that occurred in only one month following the July pullback) indicates just how tired this rally has become.
I think it’s important to be extra careful when considering proclamations that the “top is in.” We’ve already seen one major breakdown quickly reverse disproving this notion that a broken trendline means the top is in. Also, calling a top (or a bottom for that matter) is not nearly as important as simply catching the general trends. Right now, the general trend remains “up” until we get a break below the 50-DMA at 1,110.
Undoubtedly, stocks are struggling to hit new highs (this final leg up started in late December was the weakest so far for the rally since March 2009). Additionally, volume is declining, economic data continues to worsen (the latest retail numbers were awful even compared to 2008’s terrible numbers), and there are serious signs of stress showing up in the bond markets (short-term debt continues to yield next to nothing, indicating investors are more worried about locking up their cash rather than looking for income).
So, my suggestion to anyone right now is to closing out some longs for a profit, or at least taking some money off the table. Finally, one needs to consider potentially hedging one’s bets or even going net short via some carefully placed shorts. Again, it might not be the time to “sell the farm” just yet, but you want to be ready for when that time comes. Having some shorts picked out in advance doesn’t hurt.
Again, to reiterate the primary point of this essay, it is much more important to plan ahead for “when the music stops,” than to accurately guess what the last song will be in the liquidity party dance. We are doing exactly this with subscribers of HBJ Capital. While most investors continue to believe they can eek out every last percentage point of gains from this market rally, we’re already taking steps to protect ourselves from what will happen when the top finally hits. We’ve already suggested our members of long term package to move most of their money to cash to take advantage of such situations.
True, it might be next week or next month, or even longer. But with the entire world extremely bullish right now, WHEN the reversal happens it will be LARGE and VIOLENT.
Markets are at a critical juncture of higher than normal risk levels here. This does not mean we can’t trade and make profits on the long side however, we are in the 5th wave of this rally which started in March 2009. 5th waves can be very difficult to forecast as they can be extension waves or “truncate” and reverse sharply.
Traders who are planning to stick around for the long haul should be aware that there are times in the market to be aggressive on the long side, and times to be high in cash and sit back for awhile. Right now, the evidence is to be more cautious and to have higher than normal cash balances while we wait for confirmation of market/wave patterns.
-JK, Lead Associate, SLT [You can reach me at JK@hbjcapital.com]
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